Macro tailwinds—why hasn’t Crypto caught them?
This time, what’s truly worth watching isn’t whether the “Fed will hike rates or not,” but the fact that after the same set of macro data comes out, we can clearly see capital starting to price in different layers.
With inflation trending downward and employment not as strong as before, concerns about further tightening of monetary policy naturally ease.
But the problem is that
the traditional markets have already begun trading the “easing expectations,” while the crypto market hasn’t truly connected to this logic yet.
The S&P 500 continues to hit new highs—capital is clearly rotating toward risk assets. Treasury yields have also fallen, indicating that the market is repricing the future interest-rate path.
Even crude oil has started to soften.
This point is actually crucial.
Previously, the market’s biggest fear was that energy prices would push inflation back up. Now that oil prices are falling, it’s as if inflation expectations can finally breathe again.
So, from at least the directional perspective, the macro environment isn’t as bad as it once looked.
But that’s precisely where BTC’s problem lies.
The macro picture is starting to hand out “sugar,” yet Bitcoin hasn’t really moved much.
ETH also hasn’t shown particularly strong upside.
Instead, it’s traditional risk assets—especially U.S. stocks and the AI industry chain—that have already been the first to trade the expectation of looser liquidity.
So you can’t simply interpret it as
“CPI drops → rate-cut expectations rise → BTC will jump right away.”
The market is already in its second phase.
Macro provides the environment; the assets themselves still have to prove their case.
U.S. equities have earnings expectations, and the AI industry chain has a capital-expenditure narrative—so capital is willing to go there first.
If BTC wants to catch up, it can’t keep relying only on the story of “whether the Fed will cut rates.”
It needs its own capital flows, ETF demand, institutional allocation, or new narrative catalysts.
At present, traditional risk assets have already given the answer.
As for when BTC will provide its own answer, we’ll have to wait for the market to truly price it in.
$SNDK #U.S. July CPI and PPI data released this week
This time, what’s truly worth watching isn’t whether the “Fed will hike rates or not,” but the fact that after the same set of macro data comes out, we can clearly see capital starting to price in different layers.
With inflation trending downward and employment not as strong as before, concerns about further tightening of monetary policy naturally ease.
But the problem is that
the traditional markets have already begun trading the “easing expectations,” while the crypto market hasn’t truly connected to this logic yet.
The S&P 500 continues to hit new highs—capital is clearly rotating toward risk assets. Treasury yields have also fallen, indicating that the market is repricing the future interest-rate path.
Even crude oil has started to soften.
This point is actually crucial.
Previously, the market’s biggest fear was that energy prices would push inflation back up. Now that oil prices are falling, it’s as if inflation expectations can finally breathe again.
So, from at least the directional perspective, the macro environment isn’t as bad as it once looked.
But that’s precisely where BTC’s problem lies.
The macro picture is starting to hand out “sugar,” yet Bitcoin hasn’t really moved much.
ETH also hasn’t shown particularly strong upside.
Instead, it’s traditional risk assets—especially U.S. stocks and the AI industry chain—that have already been the first to trade the expectation of looser liquidity.
So you can’t simply interpret it as
“CPI drops → rate-cut expectations rise → BTC will jump right away.”
The market is already in its second phase.
Macro provides the environment; the assets themselves still have to prove their case.
U.S. equities have earnings expectations, and the AI industry chain has a capital-expenditure narrative—so capital is willing to go there first.
If BTC wants to catch up, it can’t keep relying only on the story of “whether the Fed will cut rates.”
It needs its own capital flows, ETF demand, institutional allocation, or new narrative catalysts.
At present, traditional risk assets have already given the answer.
As for when BTC will provide its own answer, we’ll have to wait for the market to truly price it in.
$SNDK #U.S. July CPI and PPI data released this week