大仁Jaron

August 15, Michael Hartnett, BofA Securities’ chief strategist, said in a recent report that in the current AI bubble environment, the optimal investment strategy is to go long both AI tech leaders and neglected “loser” assets that the market has long overlooked, in order to capture two-way returns during the final blow-off stage of the nominal GDP bubble, and to recommend shorting AI bonds. BofA’s bull-bear indicator edged down slightly from 9.7 to 9.3. It remains in an extreme bullish zone and continues to hold a “sell” signal, but global equities have still risen since the signal was issued in May. The report emphasized that capital is structurally flowing into gold and commodities, while tech stocks saw their largest single-week outflow in seven weeks. Private clients’ equity allocation has reached a historical high.
Hartnett believes that historical bubble patterns show that in the run-up to a bubble top, emerging markets or oversold cyclical assets often benefit from spillover effects. In the current setup, the most likely path to replicate this pattern is the consumer sector. Meanwhile, more than $1 trillion in AI capital expenditures combined with negative cash flow will create significant issuance pressure for related bonds. At the same time, BofA keeps its broad-asset framework of “avoid bonds, avoid the dollar, fully allocate to AI,” and points out three potential constraints that could suppress further upside in the bull market: surging bond yields, a shift in voter sentiment toward caution, and positioning that is generally already too long. Private client data shows that equity allocation has risen to a historical high of 66.4%. The shares of cash and bonds have fallen to the lowest levels on record and the lowest since 2022, respectively.
Against the backdrop of pressure as the size of U.S. Treasuries nears $4 trillion and debt-servicing costs continue to climb, BofA views the yield trajectory as the biggest variable and warns that intervention in the U.S. dollar–Japanese yen exchange rate has sent a signal that it is not desired for 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to break above 5%. Under the “avoid the dollar” theme, the report recommends going long gold as a hedge and also favors the Hong Kong real estate sector, where valuations are only about 12 times and where price levels are roughly in line with those from 30 years ago. Looking ahead, the November U.S. midterm elections are listed as a key political variable: if Republicans hold the Senate and the Texas governor is re-elected, AI risk assets could accelerate toward a peak in 2027; otherwise, it could trigger major adjustments in equities, the dollar, and yields.

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An autumn wind passes along the mountain road,
bringing a new rhythm as well.
May you move forward steadily today.

Despite their rivalry, Cristiano Ronaldo has never forgotten to show his empathy and care. ❤️
While the outside world often portrays him as arrogant, selfish, or self-centered, moments like these reveal a completely different side.
On the pitch, Lionel Messi may be his greatest opponent, but when misfortune strikes, the competition becomes trivial.
Cristiano deliberately paused to offer comfort and stay by Messi’s side during his difficult moment. Two football superstars—an unforgettable feud between rivals—but, at the end of the day, they are first and foremost human beings.
Football may put them at odds, but humanity connects them closely. 🐐❤️
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🧧 [Follow + Repost + Comment to receive ETH fan rewards | Welcome to follow the trades—let’s steadily grow and multiply in the crypto world]

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Every day, the market is filled with legends of “doubling” and sudden surges that tempt us to break the risk controls we already have.

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Everyone online is talking about BullX 🔥, and everywhere people are saying it went hundreds of times overnight.
In a bear market, everyone is so eager for a bull market to come. When you see a hot trend, you can’t help wanting to jump in—babes, did you get on board?

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U.S. July CPI, PPI, and retail sales data all came in soft. Combined with cooling employment, the market’s odds of a September rate hike at the Federal Reserve plunged from 75% to 25%, lifting global stock markets for a third straight week. However, oil prices are still elevated, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened, and the long end of the bond market continues to price in inflation and fiscal deficits. With the Jackson Hole meeting coming into focus in two weeks, it is set to become a key directional signal.

U.S. inflation data unexpectedly cooled, while employment and consumption also softened. This week, market expectations for a September rate hike rapidly unwound. But abnormal signals from the long end of the bond market, the surge in oil prices, and the persistence of hawkish officials are challenging this “pause narrative.”

The probability of a September rate hike fell sharply from 75% in late July to around 25%. That drove global stock markets higher for a third consecutive week, and major U.S. indexes remained near historical highs.

AI infrastructure-related earnings have continued to be strong, providing additional support for technology stocks and allowing equity markets, for the time being, to overlook the warning sounds coming from both oil-price shocks and the long end of the bond market.

Yet the Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis pushed Brent crude up by nearly 6% this week, approaching $90 per barrel; at the same time, the auction yield on U.S. 30-year Treasuries touched the highest level in 25 years.

While stocks cheer “the Fed turning,” the long end of the bond market is still pricing inflation and fiscal deficits—two sets of logic running in parallel. Who is right versus who is wrong could be the most important trading question of the second half of this year.

Inflation cools, September rate-hike expectations collapse

This week’s biggest macro driver comes from a series of softer U.S. data:

July CPI rose only about 0.1% month over month, and about 3.4% year over year; core inflation pressures continue to ease moderately;

July PPI was flat month over month, coming in below expectations;

July retail sales fell 0.6% month over month, the largest single-month drop in more than a year. It was far worse than the market’s expectation of a slight increase. Weakness in autos, oil prices, and several timing-related factors all weighed on the figures.

Combined with the nonfarm payroll data already released last week (down by 23,000 and revised lower), the soft-data mix caused the market’s expectations for near-term Fed hikes to unravel across the board, erasing all the hawkish premium that had built up since Chair Powell took over.

The noise dissipates with the fading dusk 🌅—settle your mind and body as night falls 🌙.
Embrace every imperfection 🫂, build up your confidence, and welcome the morning breeze ☀️.

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#1688家族family

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