There’s a habit I think many people who use Binance P2P—and I used to do this too—have: when you have to choose quickly between two merchants with a Completion Rate of 99% and 95%, most people would probably pick 99% without thinking too long. But then I started to wonder: do those two numbers truly carry the same amount of information?
When I try to look at it from a statistical perspective, I realize an easy-to-overlook detail: the same percentage does not mean the same level of certainty.
A merchant with 99% after 10,000 transactions and a merchant with 99% after 100 transactions are giving the same surface-level signal, but the sample size behind those figures is very different.
At first, I thought that simply looking at the rate would be enough. Then I read more carefully and realized that Binance P2P also separates the number of transactions over 30 days and the 30-day Completion Rate.
This made me revise my initial understanding. This isn’t simply a historical number that lasts indefinitely over time. At least in the layer of publicly available information, Binance has incorporated a time factor into how merchant performance is assessed.
From my current viewpoint, what matters is no longer whether 99% is high or not, but how many transactions that 99% is built on, over what time period, and how much it reflects recent behavior.
I’m still curious about the data layer behind the interface. There may be other signals that users can’t see—and perhaps that’s the most interesting part to keep exploring.
#binancep2pantoan @Binance Vietnam $BTC
When I try to look at it from a statistical perspective, I realize an easy-to-overlook detail: the same percentage does not mean the same level of certainty.
A merchant with 99% after 10,000 transactions and a merchant with 99% after 100 transactions are giving the same surface-level signal, but the sample size behind those figures is very different.
At first, I thought that simply looking at the rate would be enough. Then I read more carefully and realized that Binance P2P also separates the number of transactions over 30 days and the 30-day Completion Rate.
This made me revise my initial understanding. This isn’t simply a historical number that lasts indefinitely over time. At least in the layer of publicly available information, Binance has incorporated a time factor into how merchant performance is assessed.
From my current viewpoint, what matters is no longer whether 99% is high or not, but how many transactions that 99% is built on, over what time period, and how much it reflects recent behavior.
I’m still curious about the data layer behind the interface. There may be other signals that users can’t see—and perhaps that’s the most interesting part to keep exploring.
#binancep2pantoan @Binance Vietnam $BTC