🚨 PPI Today — Second Round After CPI
Yesterday, the US CPI matched expectations and the market absorbed it calmly. Today (Thursday, August 13, 8:30 AM Eastern Time) is the turn of the PPI — the Producer Price Index for July. This matters because it measures inflation at the source (factories and suppliers) before it reaches consumers. If it deviates from expectations, it could reopen the volatility that was closed yesterday.
Context:
June saw PPI fall by 0.3% (the first decline since August 2025), and the annual rate came in at 5.5%, below expectations of 6.2%. Current expectations for the July reading are around 5.1–5.5% year-over-year — meaning the market is pricing in continued cooling.
Scenarios:
📉 PPI below 5.5% → strengthens the “inflation is slowing across all directions” narrative → additional support for expectations of a September rate cut → $BTC can attempt breaking $65,000 again
📈 PPI above 6% or a strong core print → suggests inflationary pressure is still lingering in the background despite the calm CPI → rattles market confidence in the rate cut → potential selling pressure that could push BTC back to test $63,000
Important trading point:
If PPI and CPI agree on direction (down with down), this “confirmation” strengthens the existing trend. If they diverge, the market enters a state of confusion until a clearer direction emerges — and that’s a risky time to enter with a large position.
Setup Conviction: watch before the number, execute after it):
Bullish trigger: PPI ≤ 5.1% + BTC closes above $64,900 → target $65,800–$66,500
Bearish trigger: PPI ≥ 6% or a strong core surprise + BTC breaks $63,400 → target $62,000–$62,500
Please follow up
$ETH $SOL
Yesterday, the US CPI matched expectations and the market absorbed it calmly. Today (Thursday, August 13, 8:30 AM Eastern Time) is the turn of the PPI — the Producer Price Index for July. This matters because it measures inflation at the source (factories and suppliers) before it reaches consumers. If it deviates from expectations, it could reopen the volatility that was closed yesterday.
Context:
June saw PPI fall by 0.3% (the first decline since August 2025), and the annual rate came in at 5.5%, below expectations of 6.2%. Current expectations for the July reading are around 5.1–5.5% year-over-year — meaning the market is pricing in continued cooling.
Scenarios:
📉 PPI below 5.5% → strengthens the “inflation is slowing across all directions” narrative → additional support for expectations of a September rate cut → $BTC can attempt breaking $65,000 again
📈 PPI above 6% or a strong core print → suggests inflationary pressure is still lingering in the background despite the calm CPI → rattles market confidence in the rate cut → potential selling pressure that could push BTC back to test $63,000
Important trading point:
If PPI and CPI agree on direction (down with down), this “confirmation” strengthens the existing trend. If they diverge, the market enters a state of confusion until a clearer direction emerges — and that’s a risky time to enter with a large position.
Setup Conviction: watch before the number, execute after it):
Bullish trigger: PPI ≤ 5.1% + BTC closes above $64,900 → target $65,800–$66,500
Bearish trigger: PPI ≥ 6% or a strong core surprise + BTC breaks $63,400 → target $62,000–$62,500
Please follow up
$ETH $SOL