Norway’s $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund CEO, Tangeng, recently shared an interesting view: AI may boost inflation in the short term, but in the long run it becomes a deflationary force.
Their fund has been using AI for more than a year, and productivity has jumped by 20% while trading costs have fallen. This hands-on experience has made him more confident in investing in AI—not just hearing stories, but actually seeing results.
In the short term, AI does consume a lot of money: spending on data centers, energy, and infrastructure has been疯狂投入, which adds upward pressure on inflation. But over the next few years, the cost of acquiring knowledge will approach zero, labor efficiency will rise significantly, and robots will take over repetitive work—ultimately lowering the overall cost of running the economy.
It’s similar to many historical technology cycles: early on, capital expenditures surge and push inflation up; in the mature phase, productivity leaps deliver deflation. The key is the timing window and the efficiency of capital allocation.
He also joked that robots could reduce household conflicts—“in the future, nobody has to argue about who takes out the trash or who cleans the dishwasher.” The remark is lighthearted, but it reflects a realistic expectation of a structural shift in the labor force.
From a macro perspective, the AI investment cycle is only just beginning, but the real productivity dividend may take a few years to fully materialize. What the market is pricing right now is expectations; the actual payoff still needs time and patience.
Their fund has been using AI for more than a year, and productivity has jumped by 20% while trading costs have fallen. This hands-on experience has made him more confident in investing in AI—not just hearing stories, but actually seeing results.
In the short term, AI does consume a lot of money: spending on data centers, energy, and infrastructure has been疯狂投入, which adds upward pressure on inflation. But over the next few years, the cost of acquiring knowledge will approach zero, labor efficiency will rise significantly, and robots will take over repetitive work—ultimately lowering the overall cost of running the economy.
It’s similar to many historical technology cycles: early on, capital expenditures surge and push inflation up; in the mature phase, productivity leaps deliver deflation. The key is the timing window and the efficiency of capital allocation.
He also joked that robots could reduce household conflicts—“in the future, nobody has to argue about who takes out the trash or who cleans the dishwasher.” The remark is lighthearted, but it reflects a realistic expectation of a structural shift in the labor force.
From a macro perspective, the AI investment cycle is only just beginning, but the real productivity dividend may take a few years to fully materialize. What the market is pricing right now is expectations; the actual payoff still needs time and patience.