On August 12, "the Federal Reserve's megaphone" Nick Timiraos said that the July CPI data was broadly in line with expectations, easing pressure for the Fed to raise rates in September. The Fed believes current interest rates are sufficiently restrictive to steer inflation toward its 2% target, without the need for further hikes.
"the Fed's megaphone" Nick Timiraos said: "The July inflation report was broadly consistent with market expectations, easing pressure for the Fed to raise rates next month. Wall Street is especially focused on today's released CPI data, because Fed officials have also signaled that they are paying closer attention to this figure. Over the past year, Fed officials have generally expected that inflation would cool back to the 2% target level without the need for further rate hikes, but now some officials believe it is necessary to maintain higher interest rates. Other officials say they could also join the hawkish minority camp if more data makes the current outlook harder to sustain. This forecast is based on the view that the current level of interest rates is already restrictive enough, and that inflation remaining elevated is due to external shocks rather than monetary policy being too loose. The earlier assessment was that tariffs would only raise costs once, and then the impact would gradually fade; as tensions in the Middle East ease, energy prices would also fall in line with crude oil. But the reality is that these shocks are continuing, and now they are compounded by a surge in demand driven by the AI construction boom, which is pushing up the prices of technology equipment and software."