Let’s go by the core CPI month-on-month figure tonight!
If the released value hits 0.25/0.3, the market may interpret that inflation stickiness is still there—typically bearish.
If it meets expectations at 0.2, or falls between 0.2/0.25, that’s not really good—it just means inflation hasn’t worsened, more or less neutral!
Only below 0.2 would count as an upside surprise.
Also, even if headline CPI rises because energy prices push it up, don’t panic too much—focus on whether core inflation is being transmitted from oil prices.
In fact, you can ignore the year-over-year rate today, because the core month-on-month is more directly reflective.
The year-over-year figure is farther away; especially with oil prices being so volatile right now, the reference value of the YoY rate is limited.
If you want to trade around data volatility, note that right after the data comes out, price can spike and sweep stops. It’s usually safer to wait for the market to digest the move, see how it reacts, and then decide on an entry.
The above is only my personal opinion, not investment advice, for reference only.#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉
If the released value hits 0.25/0.3, the market may interpret that inflation stickiness is still there—typically bearish.
If it meets expectations at 0.2, or falls between 0.2/0.25, that’s not really good—it just means inflation hasn’t worsened, more or less neutral!
Only below 0.2 would count as an upside surprise.
Also, even if headline CPI rises because energy prices push it up, don’t panic too much—focus on whether core inflation is being transmitted from oil prices.
In fact, you can ignore the year-over-year rate today, because the core month-on-month is more directly reflective.
The year-over-year figure is farther away; especially with oil prices being so volatile right now, the reference value of the YoY rate is limited.
If you want to trade around data volatility, note that right after the data comes out, price can spike and sweep stops. It’s usually safer to wait for the market to digest the move, see how it reacts, and then decide on an entry.
The above is only my personal opinion, not investment advice, for reference only.#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉