Before the U.S. Senate adjourned in August, it did not advance the “Digital Assets Market Clarity Act” (the CLARITY Act) for a vote, and the full chamber’s review was postponed to September. The direct reason is that the Democratic Party refused to cooperate with a fast-track voting process—both parties are deadlocked over the “ethical provisions for encrypted assets held by federal officials.” Democrats want strict limits on crypto-related interests such as those of the Trump family, while the Republican version is looser; in addition, concerns about how stablecoins would impact community banks have also sparked internal dissent within the party. An even tougher hurdle is the 60-vote end-of-debate rule: with Republicans holding 53 seats, they need at least seven Democrats to support the measure. Since there are not enough cross-party votes, leadership judged that pushing for a vote would be a loss and decided to postpone the fight.
In the near term 📉: policy certainty is dashed. Polymarket’s probability of passage by end of 2026 fell from 74% to about 30%, and XRP has led declines among the top ten tokens this week by roughly 5%. Directly affected are Coinbase (COIN) 📉, Circle (CRCL) 📉, and Cipher Mining (CIFR) 📉, putting pressure on the valuation “center” of crypto-related equities and prompting a reassessment.
In the medium to long term 📈: if, within a three-week window after the Senate reconvenes on September 14, the ethics provisions are compromised and the bill clears the 60-vote threshold, the “digital commodities” characterization of BTC/ETH and the legal codification of the CFTC/SEC jurisdiction split would be locked in. That would lower compliance costs for COIN, CRCL, and CIFR, and reopen channels for institutional capital to enter—leaving ample room for valuation repair.
With only about 14 days until the September legislative session, Tillis said bluntly that “the outlook may be halved.” If it fails again, the bill will slip into an end-of-year package deal or be restarted with the 2027 new Congress—uncertainty premia will continue to weigh on the sector. #参议院推迟CLARITY法案投票至9月
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$ETH
$XRP
In the near term 📉: policy certainty is dashed. Polymarket’s probability of passage by end of 2026 fell from 74% to about 30%, and XRP has led declines among the top ten tokens this week by roughly 5%. Directly affected are Coinbase (COIN) 📉, Circle (CRCL) 📉, and Cipher Mining (CIFR) 📉, putting pressure on the valuation “center” of crypto-related equities and prompting a reassessment.
In the medium to long term 📈: if, within a three-week window after the Senate reconvenes on September 14, the ethics provisions are compromised and the bill clears the 60-vote threshold, the “digital commodities” characterization of BTC/ETH and the legal codification of the CFTC/SEC jurisdiction split would be locked in. That would lower compliance costs for COIN, CRCL, and CIFR, and reopen channels for institutional capital to enter—leaving ample room for valuation repair.
With only about 14 days until the September legislative session, Tillis said bluntly that “the outlook may be halved.” If it fails again, the bill will slip into an end-of-year package deal or be restarted with the 2027 new Congress—uncertainty premia will continue to weigh on the sector. #参议院推迟CLARITY法案投票至9月
$BTC
$ETH
$XRP