Important for the crypto market events on August 12 from the economic calendar.

Today we are expecting consumer inflation in the US (CPI). This is the main macro trigger of the week for expectations regarding the US Fed rate, movements in the US dollar index (DXY), and crypto market behavior. At the moment, most analysts believe that, for July, the year-over-year General index will be 3.4%, and the Core one 2.5%. For both, that would be a decrease of 0.1%. At the same time, on a month-over-month basis, expectations point to growth. Actual data within the forecast or below it could create positive sentiment in risk assets markets.

We expect increased volatility, and we’ll note separately that the release of the CPI in June and July ultimately led to a rise in BTC, though within the broader global summer range. This is not a guarantee that the story will repeat a third time. Especially since, so far, on a number of hourly timeframes—including the 3-hour trigger timeframe for us—the asset price has moved into a steady downtrend according to our indicator. Technical signals come first; historical patterns are secondary. But that’s not a reason not to take them into account.

Analysts also note that, given the recent statements by Fed representatives, over the next few months the trend in core inflation for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) will play an important role in determining Fed policy. It will determine whether Fed leaders will stick to their forecast of gradual disinflation without changing monetary policy.

So we’re waiting for the CPI and paying special attention to the PCE.

Daily schedule:

❗️- 15:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time — the big inflation block for the US for July:

-- Overall consumer price index (m/m).

-- Overall consumer price index (y/y).

-- Core consumer price index (m/m).

-- Core consumer price index (y/y).

- 21:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 23:00 Astana time — US federal budget execution report for July.