Tonight at 20:30, CPI data will be released. Last week’s Non-Farm payrolls unexpectedly cooled down, bringing the rate outlook for the September meeting back to a “50-50” situation.
A quick check suggests tonight’s data will likely point to three possible paths:
Core CPI MoM < 0.15%: Rate-hike expectations drop sharply, increasing the odds of a soft landing—favorable for risk assets.
Core CPI MoM 0.15%～0.25%: Performance remains steady, and we continue waiting for the next set of data.
Core CPI MoM > 0.25%: Lingering inflation concerns resurface; the probability of a September rate hike increases, and risk assets will likely struggle more.
Now back to $BTC itself, purely looking at the SOPR-STH data:
07/13：$BTC 62,300，SOPR-STH is 0.957
07/31：$BTC 63,000，SOPR-STH is 0.988
Yesterday’s low fell to 63,300, and only then did the SOPR-STH drop to 0.994.
This implies that at the current $BTC price range, there’s little trading appeal for short-term holders. Even if it drops, not many people are willing to “cut their losses” and exit. It looks like everyone is waiting for $BTC to quickly break out of this range...
A quick check suggests tonight’s data will likely point to three possible paths:
Core CPI MoM < 0.15%: Rate-hike expectations drop sharply, increasing the odds of a soft landing—favorable for risk assets.
Core CPI MoM 0.15%～0.25%: Performance remains steady, and we continue waiting for the next set of data.
Core CPI MoM > 0.25%: Lingering inflation concerns resurface; the probability of a September rate hike increases, and risk assets will likely struggle more.
Now back to $BTC itself, purely looking at the SOPR-STH data:
07/13：$BTC 62,300，SOPR-STH is 0.957
07/31：$BTC 63,000，SOPR-STH is 0.988
Yesterday’s low fell to 63,300, and only then did the SOPR-STH drop to 0.994.
This implies that at the current $BTC price range, there’s little trading appeal for short-term holders. Even if it drops, not many people are willing to “cut their losses” and exit. It looks like everyone is waiting for $BTC to quickly break out of this range...
