Tonight’s CPI: what you really need to watch isn’t 3.4%, but core 0.2%
At 20:30 tonight, the U.S. CPI will be released. The market expects year-on-year 3.4% and a month-on-month core rate of 0.2%. Since the odds of a rate hike in September are still roughly 50/50, a deviation of 0.1 percentage point in the core data could trigger a fresh repricing of U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and BTC.
My view is that overall inflation will keep cooling, but the core number won’t be particularly impressive.
If core comes in below 0.2%, it would be supportive for risk assets. BTC may have a chance to break through $64,500 to $65,000, and then look toward $66,000. If core reaches 0.3% or higher, U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar could strengthen, and BTC would need to watch closely that it doesn’t lose the $63,000 level, with downside toward $62,500.
If the data matches expectations, I’m more inclined to think BTC will first spike higher, then trade in a range.
Don’t rush to chase the first candlestick tonight. What truly determines the direction is whether, 30 to 60 minutes after the release, U.S. Treasury yields pull back—and whether BTC can hold the breakout level.
At 20:30 tonight, the U.S. CPI will be released. The market expects year-on-year 3.4% and a month-on-month core rate of 0.2%. Since the odds of a rate hike in September are still roughly 50/50, a deviation of 0.1 percentage point in the core data could trigger a fresh repricing of U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and BTC.
My view is that overall inflation will keep cooling, but the core number won’t be particularly impressive.
If core comes in below 0.2%, it would be supportive for risk assets. BTC may have a chance to break through $64,500 to $65,000, and then look toward $66,000. If core reaches 0.3% or higher, U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar could strengthen, and BTC would need to watch closely that it doesn’t lose the $63,000 level, with downside toward $62,500.
If the data matches expectations, I’m more inclined to think BTC will first spike higher, then trade in a range.
Don’t rush to chase the first candlestick tonight. What truly determines the direction is whether, 30 to 60 minutes after the release, U.S. Treasury yields pull back—and whether BTC can hold the breakout level.