Tonight at 8:30 PM, the U.S. July CPI data will be released. After five weeks of range-bound trading, the market may finally break out! Here’s the plan directly.
In line with expectations (3.4%), highest probability: push up to $64,500–65,000; ETH: 1925–1945;
then it should retrace back where it came from.
Below expectations (<3.3%), the biggest market shock: September rate hikes are basically off the table,
BTC may take the chance to surge to $67,000–68,000; ETH: to around $2000.
Above expectations (>3.5%): “stagflation trade” kicks in. BTC will retrace and test $62,000, or even $60,000; ETH: $1800 and $1725.
Simply put: the current market isn’t about whether the data is “good” or “bad,” it depends on how much the data deviates from expectations.
After five weeks of sideways consolidation, tonight it will most likely choose a direction. But remember—at the exact moment the data is released, volatility will spring open like a spring. Only the ones who survive get the right to talk about profits.
In line with expectations (3.4%), highest probability: push up to $64,500–65,000; ETH: 1925–1945;
then it should retrace back where it came from.
Below expectations (<3.3%), the biggest market shock: September rate hikes are basically off the table,
BTC may take the chance to surge to $67,000–68,000; ETH: to around $2000.
Above expectations (>3.5%): “stagflation trade” kicks in. BTC will retrace and test $62,000, or even $60,000; ETH: $1800 and $1725.
Simply put: the current market isn’t about whether the data is “good” or “bad,” it depends on how much the data deviates from expectations.
After five weeks of sideways consolidation, tonight it will most likely choose a direction. But remember—at the exact moment the data is released, volatility will spring open like a spring. Only the ones who survive get the right to talk about profits.