Gold price breaks through $4,400, hitting a two-month high: XAU📈, XAG📈, and GC📈 move higher in sync. London gold (XAU/USD) briefly touched $4,435, setting a new high since June 5.
The core drivers are threefold resonance:
First, the U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, far below market expectations. This has clearly cooled market expectations for a September rate hike. The U.S. dollar index broke below the 100 level, and U.S. Treasury yields fell in tandem—weakening the pressure of a strong dollar and high interest rates on gold.
Second, easing at the margin in the U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions drove oil prices down, while cooling inflation expectations further undermined the momentum for rate hikes.
Third, global central banks remain steadfast net buyers of gold. China’s central bank added 640,000 ounces in July, the largest monthly purchase since it resumed gold buying in November 2024. It has been increasing holdings for 21 consecutive months.
📉 Short term: After a rapid surge, gold has entered an overbought zone. Speculative net long positions rose to a record high of 22.65 million ounces. With the release of the U.S. July CPI on the evening of August 12 (Beijing time) approaching, the desire among longs to lock in profits is strong. Gold is highly likely to consolidate in a high range. $4,500 faces strong resistance, so investors should be alert to a pullback triggered by data coming in above expectations.
📈 Long term: Long-term logic—central bank gold buying, de-dollarization, and an expansion of U.S. fiscal deficits—has not changed. UBS predicts gold prices will challenge the $5,000 level in the first half of 2027. Deutsche Bank’s year-end target is $4,600. Citic Securities believes the area around $4,000 is the base zone for this round. #金价升破4400美元创两月高位
$XAU
$XAG
The core drivers are threefold resonance:
First, the U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, far below market expectations. This has clearly cooled market expectations for a September rate hike. The U.S. dollar index broke below the 100 level, and U.S. Treasury yields fell in tandem—weakening the pressure of a strong dollar and high interest rates on gold.
Second, easing at the margin in the U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions drove oil prices down, while cooling inflation expectations further undermined the momentum for rate hikes.
Third, global central banks remain steadfast net buyers of gold. China’s central bank added 640,000 ounces in July, the largest monthly purchase since it resumed gold buying in November 2024. It has been increasing holdings for 21 consecutive months.
📉 Short term: After a rapid surge, gold has entered an overbought zone. Speculative net long positions rose to a record high of 22.65 million ounces. With the release of the U.S. July CPI on the evening of August 12 (Beijing time) approaching, the desire among longs to lock in profits is strong. Gold is highly likely to consolidate in a high range. $4,500 faces strong resistance, so investors should be alert to a pullback triggered by data coming in above expectations.
📈 Long term: Long-term logic—central bank gold buying, de-dollarization, and an expansion of U.S. fiscal deficits—has not changed. UBS predicts gold prices will challenge the $5,000 level in the first half of 2027. Deutsche Bank’s year-end target is $4,600. Citic Securities believes the area around $4,000 is the base zone for this round. #金价升破4400美元创两月高位
$XAU
$XAG