The U.S. Senate will postpone a full-vote on the “CLARITY Act” to September. This isn’t simply a scheduling conflict; rather, it reflects how bottom-line demands from both parties have deadlocked. The Democratic Party refuses to sign a time agreement to fast-track legislative business before the recess. The core dispute centers on federal officials’ ethics provisions—Democrats are calling for a ban on the President, Vice President, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto businesses while in office. The target is widely seen as the roughly $1.4 billion in crypto income attributed to the Trump family. In addition, whether “interest-like” stablecoin payments would disrupt community banks, DeFi front-ends, and the details of anti–money laundering requirements remains unresolved.
After the September return, there will be only a short three-week window for votes. To pass the measure, lawmakers need 60 votes, and Senator Tillis said the odds of enactment are “probably cut in half.”
The market quickly votes with its feet: on Polymarket, the probability of passage by 2026 fell sharply from over 70% in early May to around 14%.
📉 Near term (before the September vote): regulatory uncertainty continues to be priced in. Crypto-related stocks and spot ETF shares face pressure. COIN (Coinbase) 📉, CRCL (Circle) 📉, and IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) 📉 are all under sentiment-driven pullback risk.
📈 Long term (if the bill clears in September): the legislation would clarify the jurisdictional split between the SEC and CFTC, removing obstacles for spot ETFs and institutional capital to enter. The above-mentioned assets—and the broader universe of crypto risk assets—would then face a regulatory upside repricing.
September is the last window before the midterm election. If the bill is stalled again, it could be deferred until after the election. In the short run, caution is warranted; for the long run, it may be steadier to plan purchases on pullbacks.#参议院推迟CLARITY法案投票至9月
$COIN
$CRCL
$IBIT.ETF
After the September return, there will be only a short three-week window for votes. To pass the measure, lawmakers need 60 votes, and Senator Tillis said the odds of enactment are “probably cut in half.”
The market quickly votes with its feet: on Polymarket, the probability of passage by 2026 fell sharply from over 70% in early May to around 14%.
📉 Near term (before the September vote): regulatory uncertainty continues to be priced in. Crypto-related stocks and spot ETF shares face pressure. COIN (Coinbase) 📉, CRCL (Circle) 📉, and IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) 📉 are all under sentiment-driven pullback risk.
📈 Long term (if the bill clears in September): the legislation would clarify the jurisdictional split between the SEC and CFTC, removing obstacles for spot ETFs and institutional capital to enter. The above-mentioned assets—and the broader universe of crypto risk assets—would then face a regulatory upside repricing.
September is the last window before the midterm election. If the bill is stalled again, it could be deferred until after the election. In the short run, caution is warranted; for the long run, it may be steadier to plan purchases on pullbacks.#参议院推迟CLARITY法案投票至9月
$COIN
$CRCL
$IBIT.ETF