Last night, U.S. stocks remained strong, and stocks and crypto again staged a sharp divergence—stocks rose while crypto fell.
In the short term, price performance and market capital flows are still continuously flowing back into the U.S. stock market. This can be clearly seen as well from the ETF inflow/outflow data mentioned earlier.
The most important CPI data this week will be released tomorrow. July’s CPI was the month when oil prices rebounded sharply. Recent employment data shows a slowdown in the pace of growth; if tomorrow’s CPI data comes in clearly above expectations, then for the market in the short term it is undoubtedly a major negative. Especially given that the Fed is currently operating in the context of [protecting jobs] and [fighting inflation].
It’s essentially adding new expectations to rate hikes.
Last night, US stocks saw a decline during the trading session. They follow down but don’t follow up.
Starting from the hourly timeframe, bearish strength begins to enter. Once the rebound phase weakens, after the pressure retest, the move is likely to come to an end.
After a pullback around 638, the intraday outlook turns weaker with range-bound consolidation. Before the US market opens, an oversold rebound starts.
In the evening, watch how prices perform when the rebound pullback tests the 648-655 zone. If the pullback test fails, it basically confirms the rebound has ended. After that, expect a range-bound downward move.
With your back to this resistance zone, you can continue to set up short positions.
Resistance above: 64800/65550/66480
Support below: 63800/62400/61550
Continuous testing around 1930 ultimately can’t break through.
Following BTC lower, volume increases and the move goes downward.
After a pullback around 1880, an oversold rebound begins.
The rebound pullback strength is relatively weak. Watch the retest of the pressure zone around 1910-1930.
Unable to break through on increased volume; you can still try to position yourself in the high range in advance.
Resistance above: 1910/1950/1980
Support below: 1830/1800/1770
The weekend rebound has been fairly strong in terms of upward momentum. Following BTC’s retracement and correction, in the short term after breaking below the 76 zone it looks a bit weak—so the pullback will continue.
For the pullback, watch how prices behave around 74.5. After it holds, then look for a rebound.
Resistance above: 76.5/78.9/80
Support below: 74.4/72.5/70.5
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