Iran-US Negotiations at the Table Again Hit Setbacks: Iran Says War Reparations, Lifting the Naval Blockade, and Sanctions Removal Are Preconditions for a Full Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. On the 10th, Trump reversed course and “reopened the ledger,” demanding that Iran pay reparations for decades of U.S. military casualties and protest incidents, and instructing the negotiating representatives to include this in all subsequent agendas. The dispute is no longer just about the terms themselves, but about the negotiation sequence—“who gives in first”—leading to slim prospects of restoring traffic through the strait in the near term.
Hampered by this, on Monday NYMEX WTI front-month futures (CL) jumped 5.05% to $82.13, while ICE Brent (BZ) rose 4.99% to $87.72. European diesel futures surged more than 10%.
Near term 📈 bullish: low traffic through the strait + tight global inventories; the geopolitical risk premium is being repriced again; crude oil supply faces sustained constraints;
Medium to long term 📉 slightly bearish: OPEC+ will increase output by 188,000 bpd starting in September. Global manufacturing demand is weak, making it difficult for oil prices to sustain a one-way surge. The broader trend is likely to be range-bound, with high volatility at elevated levels; the reasonable range is around $65–85.
Natural gas futures (NG) were also boosted 📈 by linkages to Gulf shipping risks, but gains may be limited in the off-season demand period. Until substantive progress materializes in the Iran-U.S. talks, energy and chemical commodities are likely to remain in a high-volatility regime of “geopolitical support but fundamentals under pressure.” #特朗普要求伊朗赔偿
$CL
$BZ
Hampered by this, on Monday NYMEX WTI front-month futures (CL) jumped 5.05% to $82.13, while ICE Brent (BZ) rose 4.99% to $87.72. European diesel futures surged more than 10%.
Near term 📈 bullish: low traffic through the strait + tight global inventories; the geopolitical risk premium is being repriced again; crude oil supply faces sustained constraints;
Medium to long term 📉 slightly bearish: OPEC+ will increase output by 188,000 bpd starting in September. Global manufacturing demand is weak, making it difficult for oil prices to sustain a one-way surge. The broader trend is likely to be range-bound, with high volatility at elevated levels; the reasonable range is around $65–85.
Natural gas futures (NG) were also boosted 📈 by linkages to Gulf shipping risks, but gains may be limited in the off-season demand period. Until substantive progress materializes in the Iran-U.S. talks, energy and chemical commodities are likely to remain in a high-volatility regime of “geopolitical support but fundamentals under pressure.” #特朗普要求伊朗赔偿
$CL
$BZ