橙子Joyce

@橙子Joyce 🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧💰💸

@橙子Joyce 🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧💰

@橙子Joyce 🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧💰💸

@橙子Joyce 🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧💰💸

@橙子Joyce 🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧💰💸

@橙子Joyce 🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧

SpaceX（Nasdaq: SPCX） plans to launch 29 Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral on Monday using a Falcon 9 rocket booster that has previously flown 17 missions.

The launch is scheduled for 10:49 a.m. Eastern Time. If all goes well, the B1085 booster will land about eight minutes later on the company’s unmanned recovery ship in the Atlantic Ocean.

Per SpaceX’s standards, the 18th flight is routine operations. Another booster, B1067, just completed a record 36th flight last month.

This kind of routinization is the foundation of SpaceX’s commercial model. By reusing rockets instead of discarding them after a single use, the company can carry out launches more frequently while reducing the cost of each mission.

NASA proved reuse is feasible, but it did not achieve low cost or rapid turnaround.

Reusable spacecraft are not a new concept.

NASA’s Space Shuttles and their solid rocket boosters repeatedly flew missions over three decades, with the Space Shuttle Endeavour completing 39 missions on its own—more than any Falcon 9 booster has flown so far.

The problem was that shuttle maintenance was always expensive and took a long time.

NASA initially envisioned a turnaround time of two weeks, but it was never achieved in fewer than 55 days, and a later NASA analysis estimated the cost per launch at about $1.5 billion. Today, the cost of a single Falcon 9 launch is about $74 million.

Flight-proven hardware is now the norm.

In recent filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), SpaceX said it has completed about 650 orbital launches, with more than 540 using flight-proven Falcon rockets. For years, building brand-new boosters for each mission has long ceased to be the company’s standard operating model.

The result is a launch cadence unmatched. The Starlink mission launched from California on Saturday was the 92nd flight of the Falcon 9 in 2026, and Monday’s mission will be the 93rd. By comparison, Europe has conducted only 334 space launches in total since 1970.

Kalshi traders predict SpaceX will complete 156 launches this year.

China is now trying to land SpaceX’s rockets, which it has already been reusing.

August 9, Cathie Wood: Bitcoin and stablecoins are likely to be the two biggest beneficiaries of the smart-agent business transformation. “Wood Lady” Cathie Wood believes that the latest employment report may look concerning on the surface, but the reality is not as bad as it seems. What truly matters is the economic shift behind the employment data. Currently, the U.S. federal budget deficit as a share of GDP is 5.6%. She believes this level is similar to the early 1980s under Reaganomics; if productivity and technology adoption continue to accelerate in line with ARK’s expectations, the ratio could come close to 5% by year-end. The bigger risk in the future may not be inflation, but deflation—especially for companies that fail to adopt AI and productivity tools.

In oil, an oversupply is taking shape. After the UAE exited OPEC in May, its production rose to a historical high. Cathie Wood believes oil prices could fall significantly and views this as a deflationary driver for most regions of the world. At the same time, capital expenditures have already broken out of the range seen over the past 30 years. She believes market concerns about an AI bubble are exaggerated, and that the market is still in the early stage of a technological revolution.

In crypto assets, Cathie Wood says that Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold is stabilizing again, and she believes that both Bitcoin and stablecoins could be the two primary beneficiaries of the smart-agent business transformation.

On August 9, according to CME’s “Fed Watch” data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September is currently 55.6%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 44.4%.

Institutional analysis points out that, after the U.S. CPI is expected to decline 0.4% month-over-month in June, markets generally expect it to rise 0.1% month-over-month in July. Excluding fuel and food, the core CPI is expected to be 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, the smallest year-over-year increase since February. After the release of a weak July nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, slower inflation growth may help ease the Federal Reserve’s internal inflation concerns. Previously, at the July 29 meeting, three officials voted in favor of a rate hike.

The CPI report may show that pressure from energy-related prices has eased. This pressure had surged sharply in the months following the end of February, when the U.S. went to war with Iran. In early July, retail gasoline prices fell to their lowest level in nearly four months, then rebounded by the end of the month to above $4 per gallon. The report may also show that airfares have declined as jet fuel costs move toward stabilization.

@橙子Joyce 🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧

On August 8, according to monitoring by TheDataNerd, a whale that used 40x leverage to short $102 million worth of Bitcoin recently faced partial liquidations. Over the past week, it has incurred losses of $1.46 million. At present, the additional margin will reduce the short position to about $60 million. The opening price was $64,212.5, and the liquidation price is $65,310.2.

On August 8, according to Bloomberg citing people familiar with the matter, Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 25-year-old Wall Street rising AI “stock god” and a former OpenAI researcher, returned to the investment stage just days after his hedge fund was on the verge of collapse. He splashed out $400 million to back a privately held company supported by Sequoia Capital. The latest disclosure today is that the private company is Source Foundry, a chip-manufacturing startup. The fund previously invested $100 million in Source Foundry; after adding another $400 million, its total investment in Source Foundry reaches $500 million.

The investment, completed on Tuesday, is the first sign of how Leopold is putting the pieces back together after his Situational Awareness fund nearly fell apart last week when many Wall Street lenders issued intensive margin calls.

Source Foundry is a stealthy chip-manufacturing startup founded in 2025 in San Francisco by Stanford materials scientists Abdulmalik Obaid (CEO) and Joe Burg. Focusing on developing simpler, lower-cost, and faster semiconductor lithography, manufacturing processes, and tools, it aims to challenge ASML’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines—addressing the enormous gap between the exponential growth in AI computing demand and the linear expansion of traditional chip production capacity—thereby reshaping how advanced AI chips are produced.

On August 7 in the U.S. East, SpaceX’s stock surged 15.83% to $133.11 per share, with a total market value of $1.75 trillion.
Elon Musk’s Terafab AI chip superfactory project has been launched. SpaceX and Tesla will make an initial investment of $16.8 billion to build Terafab in Grimes County, Texas. The plant is intended to narrow the gap between global chip supply and the more than 1 terawatt of computing capacity that SpaceX and Tesla are expected to need over the coming years.

August 7, the United States saw an unexpected decrease of 23,000 jobs in July, far below the expected increase of 80,000. The June gain was also revised downward to just 20,000. Despite weakness in the labor market, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. “The Fed’s Cornershop” Nick Timiraos commented that in July, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 4.09% because both the number of people seeking jobs and the number of people counted as unemployed declined; this data has pushed the unemployment rate to the lowest level in two years.

Analysts said this disappointing report has again raised concerns about the labor market and may complicate the Fed’s interest-rate decisions, as policymakers need to strike a balance between weak employment and persistent inflation. As a result, market expectations for rate hikes have quickly eased.

Influenced by this, all three major U.S. stock index futures jumped rapidly higher, while the U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell by nearly 30 points in the short term to 99.67. Spot gold rose by about $40 in the short term to $4,351.43 per ounce.

On August 7, crypto analyst Alicharts published a long article stating that a macro bottom for Bitcoin may already have been formed. The reasons include the following three points:

1. A TD Sequential buy signal appeared on Bitcoin’s monthly chart. The signal is relatively rare; it previously successfully marked the 2022 market bottom, and may now again point to a similar bottom.

2. Bitcoin is hovering near the 50-month simple moving average. Since 2014, this long-term support level has repeatedly coincided with major market bottoms.

3. The Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) has fallen to -71. The last time it reached this level was in June (when Bitcoin fell toward around $57,000). Historically, such low readings often coincide with major bottoms.

Note: The Chande Momentum Oscillator is used to measure the relative strength between upward and downward momentum over a period of time, helping to judge whether the market is in an overbought or oversold condition and how strong the trend is.

On August 7, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of crypto asset management firm Bitwise, said that if the Clarity Act fails to pass this week, the market may see temporary volatility, but it will be prepared for a rebound in the fall.

On August 7, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett posted that although the White House has started reaching out regarding a counterproposal to the bipartisan ethics agreement put forward by Tillis-Gallego, people involved in crypto policy are still in what an industry source called a “strange state of limbo.”

Terrett cited a source saying that some of the president’s closest supporters have been working behind the scenes this week to try to bring the ethics agreement to fruition. Meanwhile, negotiations surrounding other unresolved issues are still ongoing. The White House is taking the lead in pushing forward discussions related to BRCA (the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act), in an effort to persuade enforcement agencies that still have reservations to change their stance.