Analyst: The market’s quiet period is about to end; large swings may come before the fourth quarter
On August 11, multiple analysts said the market’s calm period is nearing its end. With Bitcoin stuck in an extended period of ultra-low volatility sideways trading, it may be difficult to sustain, and a sharp directional choice is likely imminent. The rebound window may arrive much earlier than most people expect in the fourth quarter.
Analyst Sykodelic believes the current market is “boringly calm,” but that extreme compression of volatility will ultimately be resolved by a violent directional move. BTC has currently broken below $65,300, and its weekly close performance is weak, so he has chosen to short Bitcoin.
His trading thesis is that once Bitcoin falls to the $60,500 target level to clear out trapped liquidity, its price may then quickly reverse and surge, breaking above $67,000 and moving toward the mid-$70,000s. This would form a “kill longs first, then squeeze shorts” type of bearish trap.
However, not everyone is betting on a drop followed by a rise. Analysts such as Michaël van de Poppe and MerlijnTrader base their views on monthly TD sequence buy signals and classic breakout patterns, saying that the BTC correction has already been completed and that the uptrend phase of the bull market is about to begin.
In addition, data at the institutional level also provides bullish support. The fund premium index remains near 0.14, and selling pressure has not yet shown up in the data, which is also seen as a mildly bullish signal.
In summary, although bulls and bears have different predictions for the market’s direction, there is always a shared consensus among market participants. That is: the current state of ultra-low volatility compression is destined to be broken, and the timing may be far earlier than most people expect—before the fourth quarter.
#比特币市场趋势
On August 11, multiple analysts said the market’s calm period is nearing its end. With Bitcoin stuck in an extended period of ultra-low volatility sideways trading, it may be difficult to sustain, and a sharp directional choice is likely imminent. The rebound window may arrive much earlier than most people expect in the fourth quarter.
Analyst Sykodelic believes the current market is “boringly calm,” but that extreme compression of volatility will ultimately be resolved by a violent directional move. BTC has currently broken below $65,300, and its weekly close performance is weak, so he has chosen to short Bitcoin.
His trading thesis is that once Bitcoin falls to the $60,500 target level to clear out trapped liquidity, its price may then quickly reverse and surge, breaking above $67,000 and moving toward the mid-$70,000s. This would form a “kill longs first, then squeeze shorts” type of bearish trap.
However, not everyone is betting on a drop followed by a rise. Analysts such as Michaël van de Poppe and MerlijnTrader base their views on monthly TD sequence buy signals and classic breakout patterns, saying that the BTC correction has already been completed and that the uptrend phase of the bull market is about to begin.
In addition, data at the institutional level also provides bullish support. The fund premium index remains near 0.14, and selling pressure has not yet shown up in the data, which is also seen as a mildly bullish signal.
In summary, although bulls and bears have different predictions for the market’s direction, there is always a shared consensus among market participants. That is: the current state of ultra-low volatility compression is destined to be broken, and the timing may be far earlier than most people expect—before the fourth quarter.
#比特币市场趋势
