When the market is so cold that nobody is watching the charts, on the CME futures market, there are still people aggressively going long on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has been hovering around 64,000 for five weeks. Binance spot trading volume has been steadily shrinking, and most people are waiting for a deeper sell-off so they can buy the dip. But the latest CME futures net positions show that the longs by hedge funds and institutions have been increasing for several consecutive weeks. This position has long been negative—institutions are accustomed to buying spot and shorting futures to profit from the price spread. The abnormal surge in net longs can only mean that larger capital is actively going long.
In history, two times with the same kind of signal are worth remembering. Last year, during the week of the deepest pullback to 74,000, hedge funds went long heavily, and afterward the price rallied all the way to 126,000. Before the prior squeeze phase that lasted more than a month, institutions suddenly bought futures in a similar way, luring retail traders into the short side. After that, a cascading squeeze followed, dropping nearly 30%.
The opposite signal has also worked. During the week when the rebound pushed above 80,000, short positions suddenly surged to four or five times their previous level. Then MicroStrategy announced its first wave of selling coins, and the market saw the largest historical capitulation-style selloff— the price fell back quickly to the mid-50,000s.
Now, starting from 57,000, these longs have been adding to their positions. Even last week, the numbers were still rising. On-chain data points in the same direction: fewer than 10 small wallets are selling, while whales holding more than 100 are buying. The time during which volatility signals have been flashing continuously has already exceeded that of the previous two big waves. The longer momentum gets squeezed, the more violently it releases. As long as the price holds above 64,000, there is still a chance to challenge 68,000 to 71,000.
Nobody can know for sure where the absolute bottom is. In the final stretch of a bear market, buying in batches is more practical than trying to bet on a perfect bottom.
#比特币 #BTC
Bitcoin has been hovering around 64,000 for five weeks. Binance spot trading volume has been steadily shrinking, and most people are waiting for a deeper sell-off so they can buy the dip. But the latest CME futures net positions show that the longs by hedge funds and institutions have been increasing for several consecutive weeks. This position has long been negative—institutions are accustomed to buying spot and shorting futures to profit from the price spread. The abnormal surge in net longs can only mean that larger capital is actively going long.
In history, two times with the same kind of signal are worth remembering. Last year, during the week of the deepest pullback to 74,000, hedge funds went long heavily, and afterward the price rallied all the way to 126,000. Before the prior squeeze phase that lasted more than a month, institutions suddenly bought futures in a similar way, luring retail traders into the short side. After that, a cascading squeeze followed, dropping nearly 30%.
The opposite signal has also worked. During the week when the rebound pushed above 80,000, short positions suddenly surged to four or five times their previous level. Then MicroStrategy announced its first wave of selling coins, and the market saw the largest historical capitulation-style selloff— the price fell back quickly to the mid-50,000s.
Now, starting from 57,000, these longs have been adding to their positions. Even last week, the numbers were still rising. On-chain data points in the same direction: fewer than 10 small wallets are selling, while whales holding more than 100 are buying. The time during which volatility signals have been flashing continuously has already exceeded that of the previous two big waves. The longer momentum gets squeezed, the more violently it releases. As long as the price holds above 64,000, there is still a chance to challenge 68,000 to 71,000.
Nobody can know for sure where the absolute bottom is. In the final stretch of a bear market, buying in batches is more practical than trying to bet on a perfect bottom.
#比特币 #BTC