The biggest feeling about the recent market is that it’s absolutely torturous. Today is just like a week ago; a week ago was the same as a month ago. There has been no change at all on the emotional front, and volatility has been at its most suppressed. Those who can’t withstand the low-frequency fluctuations passively cut losses and move on to US stocks. Those who can’t stand the loneliness keep frequently switching positions, repeatedly consuming their principal. Everyone is stuck in indecision—when will this endless, grinding consolidation finally come to an end? And how much longer will the bear market continue to torment us?

Based on an overall assessment from the bull-bear cycle framework and the macro monetary-policy turning point of the Federal Reserve, Uncle San believes that this round of the bear market has the most torturous ending phase—only the last two months remain. Mid-September will be the core turning point for the year’s行情.

A while back, MicroStrategy and the Trump Group sold Bitcoin at a loss, sparking retail investors to mock top institutions for chasing at highs and cutting at lows—nothing more than slightly bigger “scammers.” Third Uncle believes this is the most typical limitation of retail cognition: they only focus on short-term book profits and losses and completely fail to understand the risk-control logic of large funds.

Retail investors cutting losses is a passive surrender after their mindset collapses—emotion-driven trading with no discipline. The more they get trapped, the more they hold; the more they hold, the more they lose, and ultimately they exit the market completely. Meanwhile, institutions trimming with small losses is precise, proactive risk control—not running away by fully clearing positions. On the trading table, the most important thing is to keep enough capital to continue sitting at the table, no matter when.

MicroStrategy’s low-price cash-out is to stabilize cash flow—to raise its US dollar reserve to 4 billion US dollars, extending the funding safety cushion and proactively mitigating risks from extreme market conditions. You should know that as of now, their core bottom holdings of 840,000 Bitcoin remain completely unchanged.

Back to the market: Over the past three months, Bitcoin has been stuck in a range of 62,000–65,000 US dollars, oscillating continuously. It’s currently rebounding slightly to around 65,000. With US stock markets closed over the weekend and institutional funds in spot ETFs paused, the rebound’s driving force comes from a short-term sentiment repair among retail investors in Europe and Asia, offshore “whale” activity, and futures funding. Add to that the thin market liquidity due to the holiday closure—small amounts of capital can move prices, and before macro funds return, there’s no meaningful trend reference value.

Also, the late-July ADP employment data was significantly weaker, directly cooling September Fed rate-hike expectations. Combined with the recent steady net inflows into spot ETFs, some long-sidelined observers finally began their own accumulation plans. On the long-term logic, Third Uncle previously said that the phase where it’s at or below 600,000 US dollars is a relatively advantageous positioning range that will be foreseeable over the next two years.

But we also need to emphasize: short-term recovery doesn’t equal a trend reversal. The next two months are the key determinant for the full-year outlook. The August and September nonfarm payrolls and CPI core inflation data, together with the FOMC policy meeting on September 16, will thoroughly break the deadlocked sideways range and lock in the future reversal low.

Besides that, there’s another piece: the historical规律 of the US midterm election is an implicit risk that most people ignore. In the past three midterm-election years, August Bitcoin closed down in every case, with an average decline of over 13%. The median August return across the years has been -7%, which makes it the weakest month of the entire year. If we estimate the drop of 13% based on the pattern, this month is likely to revisit around 58,500 to test the pre-June lows.

If it really plays out as expected, that means Third Uncle’s view over the past three months—that this market must make new lows—will be fulfilled. At that time, we’ll go through the cycle by rebuilding shorts and reversing positions, entering the next cycle spiral.

In terms of the sector, institutional positioning is clearly diverging, and structural opportunities have become absolutely mainstream. The EIP-8361 proposal for Ethereum has been surrounded by controversy. The core is to lower staking rewards and strengthen ETH’s deflationary scarcity. In the short term, it’s a mild negative for the staking sector, but in the long run it will greatly increase the value of ETH assets. Overseas, established banks have already positioned themselves early; their holdings of staking-based ETH ETFs have directly tripled. The logic behind institutional positioning is: BTC is for strategic reserves and hedging, while ETH earns value-added returns through staking.

The industry is accelerating through a winners-and-losers process and moving toward standardization. The first US BTC spot ETF is about to be liquidated and delisted. Smaller, weaker products are being cleared out faster, and capital continues to concentrate into leading institutions such as BlackRock—making the Matthew effect increasingly evident. At the same time, Circle’s earnings report looks impressive: USDC circulation has surged significantly. In September, it will work with top institutions like BlackRock and Visa to launch its own L1 chain. The crypto market is steadily integrating into traditional finance, and the long-term development logic is firmly established.

In any case, the next two months of grinding down, probing the lows, and killing fear will be paving the way for the September cycle turning point. In the late stage of a bear market, emotional trading is the most taboo. Don’t panic-sell for exits, and don’t go all-in betting on short-term moves. Keep your mindset steady, strictly control position size, and hold your core positions—making it through October is enough.

Back to the charts:

Big Pie (BTC): There’s no new narrative for the medium- and long-term outlook. On the four-hour timeframe and above, Third Uncle’s mid-term view is to wait for the final strike from the bears, completing the entire fifth wave. On the hourly timeframe, BTC is officially testing upward at 65,200 points; watch the closing price this week. The logic for the medium-to-long term is: regardless of whether the hourly timeframe leads to an upside rebound on the four-hour timeframe, a trend reversal requires breaking down to the downside, and driving the completion of the final wave of the main selloff with the last downward pullback. Only after the ultimate “shakeout” will the market reverse.

Ethereum is moving in tandem with Big Pie, with a weak pullback. Third Uncle’s community’s US stock sector is about to start, and in terms of volatility, US stocks will be much more volatile than crypto.

Fear and Greed Index intraday 41.#BTC走势分析