BTC closes at 64827, ETH at 1916. Both 4H main counts have laid out five upward waves, and all three strict rules are also fully passed—but the current price is still pressing below the recent swing high. Are the two coins just in the process of completing the fifth wave, or has the ABC already begun taking control?

For the structure chart, see the cover and the chart in the body.
Data is as of 08:00 UTC on August 9, 2026. Each uses 300 4H candlesticks. The wave count has only medium confidence; you need to look at both the main count and the alternative at the same time. 4H noise is higher than the daily. Confirmation by close is more important than intraday wicks that briefly pierce levels.

【First, clarify the method】

This wave reading follows Frost and Prechter’s three hard rules. Wave 2 must not penetrate the start of wave 1. Wave 3 must not be the shortest segment inside the impulsive waves. In a standard impulsive structure, wave 4 must not re-enter the price range of wave 1. Fib is used only for observation levels, not as a strict rule. The alternative always keeps the option of ABC correction, eliminating it via price action.

Both sets of main counts are currently marked as impulse_5, with scores of 13 each. The ABC alternative score is only 2. The engine’s labeling indicates the current price is still below the most recent swing, so the bullish structure has not yet secured a clean breakout.

【BTC first looks at the 65,000 area (6.5万) gate】

BTC’s main count is still an upward five-wave sequence. R1, R2, and R3 have all passed. The three motive-wave lengths are about 1531, 2243, and 1146, and the third wave has not become the shortest wave.

The near-term Fib segment is taken from 63881 to 65027. The current price 64827 sits below the 0.0 level at 65027. The retracement levels are 64756, 64589, 64454, and 64318 in sequence. The extension targets above are 65338 and 65735. The recent swing high at 65388 also falls within this overhead pressure band.

The structure observation price is near 64318. If 4H can hold above 64318, the upward main count can still be retained. If there are consecutive closes back below 63881, the ABC alternative will clearly come to the forefront. Breaking 62300 would also cut off the path where near-term highs and lows keep stepping upward.

Right now, the most awkward part for BTC is very specific: it is just one step away from 65027 and 65388, yet it has not closed above them. The main count is biased bullish, but the spot price is still under the prior high resistance band.

【ETH stuck between 1924 and 1912】

ETH also delivers a five-wave upward structure, and all three hard rules are passed. The three motive-wave lengths are about 53.43, 72.70, and 51.18, and the third wave is still the longest segment.

The near-term Fib range is 1892.42 to 1943.60. The current price 1916 is exactly between 0.5 at 1918 and 0.618 at 1912, while 0.382 lands at 1924. First watch the latest high at 1944, then 1958 and 1975.

If ETH cannot hold 1912, then 1903 and 1892 below will continue to be tested. If 1892 is also lost, the ABC read becomes even more straightforward. The bigger structural swing low is near 1829; only a break below it would count as breaking the recent upward-shifted swing bottom.

ETH is more tangled than BTC. BTC has already squeezed right up to the prior-high gate, while ETH is grinding in the middle of the pullback zone. The two coins’ main counts point in the same bullish direction, but the timing is off by one beat.

【The two coins are not fully synchronized】

BTC breaks first while ETH lingers below 1924, so the so-called dual-coin confirmation is not clean enough. If ETH first stands back above 1944, but BTC slips back below 64318, it’s the same—cool the enthusiasm.

I’m watching four numbers right now. BTC: 64318 and 65388. ETH: 1912 and 1944.

Hold your respective supports, and at least one side must close and break above the most recent swing high. Then the upward five-wave story can still be argued. If both sides lose 0.618 and then lose Fib 1.0 again, the ABC alternative will become the more natural read.

Waves are not unique. Today’s report answers only one question: does the 4H structure still allow going long further, or has it already entered the adjustment takeover zone? The answer depends on the close confirmations of the four numbers above.

Do you believe the two coins should complete the upward five waves together, or should you first wait for ABC to wash out this 4H range?

$BTC $ETH #波浪理论 #加密行情 #4H structure

Captain Dragonfly｜A finance commentator who likes analyzing data and candlesticks.

Not investment advice. Wave counting is only for structural observation.