I also saw people the other day waiting for $SPCX to drop to 90. I didn’t expect that the rebound after the bad news had run its course would come so fast—today it jumped from around 110 straight up to 128 in one go.
The amount of information over the past couple of days has actually been huge.
First was the company’s first earnings report after listing: Q2 revenue was $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year, and the loss narrowed to $541 million / EPS -0.09, better than market expectations. But within a single quarter, capital expenditures already surged to $18.4 billion, including nearly $15.8 billion going toward AI. So even though the report beat, the market’s first reaction was instead to sell off—by nearly 14%.
Then came August 6, the long-awaited unlock: about 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors became eligible for sale, directly lifting the tradable float from roughly 4.9% to 11.8%. The result was that on the actual unlock day, it didn’t keep collapsing—instead, it rose 6.1%. Trading volume reached 255 million shares, about 4 times the average daily volume over the prior 10 trading days.
Another key metric is the cost of shorting. A few days ago, someone saw that SPCX’s share lending fee rate had at one point approached 90%. At that time, the short side was already extremely crowded. But now it has quickly fallen back from these extreme highs, and the tightness in borrowed shares has clearly eased.
Then add in ARK’s buying—Cathie Wood’s ARK picked up nearly $20 million worth of SPCX during the downturn. Argus today upgraded its rating from Hold to Buy and set a $160 target price. Also, SpaceX/Tesla is officially pushing forward with the $16.8 billion Terafab project. Several incremental positives just happened to land right after the biggest near-term negative had already played out. Everything is perfectly timed.
So looking back now, with everyone knowing the market was going to get the “earnings report + huge unlock,” people may already have traded away the worst expectations ahead of time. All the downside expectations have landed = the biggest near-term positive
However, the biggest feature of $SPCX still hasn’t changed: it rips up and it crashes hard. Looking back from the high point of $200+—it’s only been a bit over a month, and now it’s still just one step away from the $135 IPO price.
And the unlock hasn’t ended either. According to the prospectus, more shares will be released in batches over time—the next batch is around August 20, followed by additional unlock windows.
With a high valuation + huge volatility, welcome—this is for the players with big hearts. It’s like they’re saying…
The amount of information over the past couple of days has actually been huge.
First was the company’s first earnings report after listing: Q2 revenue was $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year, and the loss narrowed to $541 million / EPS -0.09, better than market expectations. But within a single quarter, capital expenditures already surged to $18.4 billion, including nearly $15.8 billion going toward AI. So even though the report beat, the market’s first reaction was instead to sell off—by nearly 14%.
Then came August 6, the long-awaited unlock: about 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors became eligible for sale, directly lifting the tradable float from roughly 4.9% to 11.8%. The result was that on the actual unlock day, it didn’t keep collapsing—instead, it rose 6.1%. Trading volume reached 255 million shares, about 4 times the average daily volume over the prior 10 trading days.
Another key metric is the cost of shorting. A few days ago, someone saw that SPCX’s share lending fee rate had at one point approached 90%. At that time, the short side was already extremely crowded. But now it has quickly fallen back from these extreme highs, and the tightness in borrowed shares has clearly eased.
Then add in ARK’s buying—Cathie Wood’s ARK picked up nearly $20 million worth of SPCX during the downturn. Argus today upgraded its rating from Hold to Buy and set a $160 target price. Also, SpaceX/Tesla is officially pushing forward with the $16.8 billion Terafab project. Several incremental positives just happened to land right after the biggest near-term negative had already played out. Everything is perfectly timed.
So looking back now, with everyone knowing the market was going to get the “earnings report + huge unlock,” people may already have traded away the worst expectations ahead of time. All the downside expectations have landed = the biggest near-term positive
However, the biggest feature of $SPCX still hasn’t changed: it rips up and it crashes hard. Looking back from the high point of $200+—it’s only been a bit over a month, and now it’s still just one step away from the $135 IPO price.
And the unlock hasn’t ended either. According to the prospectus, more shares will be released in batches over time—the next batch is around August 20, followed by additional unlock windows.
With a high valuation + huge volatility, welcome—this is for the players with big hearts. It’s like they’re saying…
