The U.S. job market suddenly fell apart
It wasn’t just that nonfarm payrolls were a bit lower.
It directly turned negative.
In July, the U.S. nonfarm employment fell by 23,000.
The market had been expecting an increase of more than 80,000.
Even more brutal:
The May and June figures were revised down by a combined 103,000.
This shows that the U.S. job market is cooling—not just a problem with a single data release.
But there’s an interesting contradiction here:
Nonfarm: -23,000
↓
Employment clearly weakens
↓
The Fed has less justification to keep hiking
↓
Risk assets catch their breath
So, in the short term,
BTC, ETH, and gold are all somewhat favorable.
But I won’t call a bull market right now.
Because the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.1%,
and oil prices have also been rising recently.
Next, what the market really needs to trade is:
Whether employment stays weak + inflation will start to pick up again.
If the next CPI also cools:
That would be the most comfortable scenario for BTC, ETH, and gold.
If employment is already weak, but oil prices push inflation back up:
Then it’s going to be a problem.
Analyst Hengge’s take:
The biggest signal from this nonfarm report isn’t that “the U.S. is headed for a recession.”
It’s that—
the Fed’s remaining room to tighten is being gradually blocked, one employment datapoint at a time.
Going forward, I’ll focus on just two things:
CPI and oil prices.
They will determine whether this nonfarm beat can only last a day,
or whether it turns into a sustained trend.
Do you think the next breakout will be BTC first, or gold?
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#美国7月非农意外下降
#非农
#美联储
#降息预期
It wasn’t just that nonfarm payrolls were a bit lower.
It directly turned negative.
In July, the U.S. nonfarm employment fell by 23,000.
The market had been expecting an increase of more than 80,000.
Even more brutal:
The May and June figures were revised down by a combined 103,000.
This shows that the U.S. job market is cooling—not just a problem with a single data release.
But there’s an interesting contradiction here:
Nonfarm: -23,000
↓
Employment clearly weakens
↓
The Fed has less justification to keep hiking
↓
Risk assets catch their breath
So, in the short term,
BTC, ETH, and gold are all somewhat favorable.
But I won’t call a bull market right now.
Because the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.1%,
and oil prices have also been rising recently.
Next, what the market really needs to trade is:
Whether employment stays weak + inflation will start to pick up again.
If the next CPI also cools:
That would be the most comfortable scenario for BTC, ETH, and gold.
If employment is already weak, but oil prices push inflation back up:
Then it’s going to be a problem.
Analyst Hengge’s take:
The biggest signal from this nonfarm report isn’t that “the U.S. is headed for a recession.”
It’s that—
the Fed’s remaining room to tighten is being gradually blocked, one employment datapoint at a time.
Going forward, I’ll focus on just two things:
CPI and oil prices.
They will determine whether this nonfarm beat can only last a day,
or whether it turns into a sustained trend.
Do you think the next breakout will be BTC first, or gold?
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#美国7月非农意外下降
#非农
#美联储
#降息预期