Before the U.S. Senate’s August recess, it will not vote on the “CLARITY Act.” In essence, it’s a dual-logjam of “procedure + consensus.” On one hand, advancing the bill requires 60 votes, and the Democratic Party has a high cooperation threshold. Meanwhile, the Senate calendar is crowded out by other priorities, such as judicial nominations, appropriations bills, and Russia sanctions. Even after handling these items this week, it will be difficult to take up the bill. On the other hand, the core disagreement remains unresolved—particularly the ethical provisions banning senior officials from issuing digital assets. Whether enforcement authority lies with the Department of Justice or with state attorneys general remains contested. The Democrats and Republicans continue to stalemate, and even within the Republican Party there is not full unity. Prediction markets show the probability of the bill being signed into law within 2026 has already fallen to 16%.

Short term 📉: BTC, ETH, and crypto-related assets face pressure from expectation recalibration; the compliance-premium upside evaporates, and institutional participation appetite sharply declines.

Long term 📈: If there is a brief session in September or if voting is restarted in 2027, then once the market-structure bill defines the SEC/CFTC division of responsibilities, it will provide long-term regulatory tailwinds for stablecoins such as USDT and the entire industry—only then will the compliance foundation for large-scale institutional inflows truly be solidified.

During the recess, the industry will continue to operate in the gray zone of “regulatory uncertainty,” with both fragmented SEC enforcement and cross-border migration pressure present. #美参议院8月休会前不表决加密法案
$BTC
$ETH