#道指下跌464点 US stocks fell across the board on Thursday (August 6). The Dow dropped 464.02 points, down 0.85%, to 53,885.10, ending the prior five-day winning streak. The Dow Jones ETF, DIA, also fell 0.85% in sync.
Three major factors weighing on the short term
First, fresh uncertainty has emerged for the Strait of Hormuz navigation. A shipping-management draft being considered by the Iranian parliament reportedly aims to ban U.S.-Iran vessels from transiting, reigniting geopolitical risks. WTI crude jumped nearly 4% to break above $78, while Brent pushed close to $83. The rebound in oil prices has reignited inflation concerns.
Second, the Fed’s “hawkish tone” is back. The Financial Times disclosed that if Waller sees inflation data continuing to run hot, he is prepared to restart rate hikes in September. Officials such as Kashkari and Cook also reiterated their stance for further tightening. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.66%, the dollar strengthened, and valuations came under pressure.
Third, the earnings cycle is “good news already priced in.” Western Digital (WDC) fell 13.03% and SanDisk (SNDK) dropped 6.81%. Over the past year, both had surged more than 500% and 3,000% respectively. Even though last quarter’s results beat expectations, the guidance for the next quarter came in below the market’s lofty expectations, leading to concentrated profit-taking. The reorganization at Seagate’s management fell 3.2%, becoming an important dragging weight on the Dow.
Still solid longer-term fundamentals
Of the 382 S&P 500 companies that have already reported earnings, 84.8% beat expectations—far above the historical average of 68%. Microsoft rose 2.54% to a new high, and after the SpaceX lock-up was lifted, it actually climbed another 6.14%. The main earnings theme in AI and technology has not been broken.
Short term 📉 — await before NFP, with oil prices and rate-hike expectations hitting simultaneously; broad-market funds such as DIA are not ideal for chasing.
Long term 📈 — treat the pullback as an opportunity to build positions. Once the Fed’s path becomes clearer and the Strait risk is lifted, high-quality tech and semiconductor leaders may restart an uptrend. High-position pullback stocks like WDC and SNDK should be watched for whether any guidance/expectations gap repairs—then decide whether to “catch the knife.”
$DIA.ETF
$SNDK
$WDC
Three major factors weighing on the short term
First, fresh uncertainty has emerged for the Strait of Hormuz navigation. A shipping-management draft being considered by the Iranian parliament reportedly aims to ban U.S.-Iran vessels from transiting, reigniting geopolitical risks. WTI crude jumped nearly 4% to break above $78, while Brent pushed close to $83. The rebound in oil prices has reignited inflation concerns.
Second, the Fed’s “hawkish tone” is back. The Financial Times disclosed that if Waller sees inflation data continuing to run hot, he is prepared to restart rate hikes in September. Officials such as Kashkari and Cook also reiterated their stance for further tightening. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.66%, the dollar strengthened, and valuations came under pressure.
Third, the earnings cycle is “good news already priced in.” Western Digital (WDC) fell 13.03% and SanDisk (SNDK) dropped 6.81%. Over the past year, both had surged more than 500% and 3,000% respectively. Even though last quarter’s results beat expectations, the guidance for the next quarter came in below the market’s lofty expectations, leading to concentrated profit-taking. The reorganization at Seagate’s management fell 3.2%, becoming an important dragging weight on the Dow.
Still solid longer-term fundamentals
Of the 382 S&P 500 companies that have already reported earnings, 84.8% beat expectations—far above the historical average of 68%. Microsoft rose 2.54% to a new high, and after the SpaceX lock-up was lifted, it actually climbed another 6.14%. The main earnings theme in AI and technology has not been broken.
Short term 📉 — await before NFP, with oil prices and rate-hike expectations hitting simultaneously; broad-market funds such as DIA are not ideal for chasing.
Long term 📈 — treat the pullback as an opportunity to build positions. Once the Fed’s path becomes clearer and the Strait risk is lifted, high-quality tech and semiconductor leaders may restart an uptrend. High-position pullback stocks like WDC and SNDK should be watched for whether any guidance/expectations gap repairs—then decide whether to “catch the knife.”
$DIA.ETF
$SNDK
$WDC