Before the U.S. Senate adjourned in August, it did not put the “CLEAR Act” to a vote. The main reason was that the agenda was packed with a Russia sanctions case and 74 nominations, and the Senate procedure can advance only one contested bill at a time. A deeper bottleneck was the ethical provisions tied to conflicts of interest in the Trump family’s crypto dealings—while the Democrats demanded a ban on senior officials supporting crypto projects, the Republicans’ version did not meet that requirement, and a bipartisan compromise collapsed.
In the short run, the market has voted with its feet 📉: BTC fell below $63,000 to a two-week low; COIN’s earnings came in below expectations; MSTR recorded a $8.22 billion impairment charge on its Bitcoin holdings; funds trimmed positions on the rebound; and Polymarket’s probability of signing within the year plunged from 82% to 35%. The expected regulatory catalyst failed to materialize, and on top of that, U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, clearly cooling risk appetite.
Over the medium to long term 📈, the outlook is cautious: on one hand, the Democrats have accepted cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class, and the SEC/CFTC can use Project Crypto to fill in the supporting rules faster. On the other hand, if the bill misses the August window, it could be pushed to the new Congress in 2027, extending the waiting period for institutional capital.
Conclusion: Short-term 📉 is clear-cut; medium-term 📈 depends on how strongly regulators step in to fill the gaps; long-term 📈 depends on the political landscape after the midterm elections. The “compliance premium” for crypto assets is discounted in the short term, but the industry’s move toward legitimacy and daylight is not reversing. #美参议院8月休会前不表决加密法案
$MSTR
$COIN
$BTC
In the short run, the market has voted with its feet 📉: BTC fell below $63,000 to a two-week low; COIN’s earnings came in below expectations; MSTR recorded a $8.22 billion impairment charge on its Bitcoin holdings; funds trimmed positions on the rebound; and Polymarket’s probability of signing within the year plunged from 82% to 35%. The expected regulatory catalyst failed to materialize, and on top of that, U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, clearly cooling risk appetite.
Over the medium to long term 📈, the outlook is cautious: on one hand, the Democrats have accepted cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class, and the SEC/CFTC can use Project Crypto to fill in the supporting rules faster. On the other hand, if the bill misses the August window, it could be pushed to the new Congress in 2027, extending the waiting period for institutional capital.
Conclusion: Short-term 📉 is clear-cut; medium-term 📈 depends on how strongly regulators step in to fill the gaps; long-term 📈 depends on the political landscape after the midterm elections. The “compliance premium” for crypto assets is discounted in the short term, but the industry’s move toward legitimacy and daylight is not reversing. #美参议院8月休会前不表决加密法案
$MSTR
$COIN
$BTC