#美元有望创两周最佳单日表现 The core driving force comes from the combined effect of “safe-haven + rate-hike expectations” on two wheels. Escalation in the Middle East situation boosts oil prices and inflation expectations; the market then shifts to pricing in the Fed restarting rate hikes, and rising U.S. Treasury yields directly props up the dollar.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)📈 moves above the 101.50 line; the Euro to U.S. Dollar (EURUSD)📉 falls back to around 1.14.
The U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen (USDJPY)📈 once neared 164, and the yen hit its lowest level in nearly 40 years. The CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a 25bp hike in September has surged to more than 68% from about 35% two weeks ago. The correlation coefficient between 2-year U.S. Treasury yields and DXY is as high as 0.86—spreads have once again become the dominant dollar variable.
📈 Bullish in the short term: geopolitical safe-haven demand + hawkish pricing + a technically intact long structure make it more likely that DXY consolidates higher and tests the 102 level.
📉 Bearish over the long run: Wall Street’s mainstream investment banks expect DXY to fall another ~3% versus the current level by end-2026; Morgan Stanley even looks for a 5% decline—“American exceptionalism” is starting to loosen, and the rate-cut cycle will ultimately arrive. The current hawkish support looks more like a phase rebound than a sustained trend reversal.
Inflation propelled by energy costs has a supply-side attribute, so its sustainability is uncertain. If the Middle East cools off and economic data weakens, the dollar could quickly give back its gains. Short-term📈 bulls can ride the momentum, while long-term📉 investors should watch for a valuation reversion triggered by tightening spreads.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)📈 moves above the 101.50 line; the Euro to U.S. Dollar (EURUSD)📉 falls back to around 1.14.
The U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen (USDJPY)📈 once neared 164, and the yen hit its lowest level in nearly 40 years. The CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a 25bp hike in September has surged to more than 68% from about 35% two weeks ago. The correlation coefficient between 2-year U.S. Treasury yields and DXY is as high as 0.86—spreads have once again become the dominant dollar variable.
📈 Bullish in the short term: geopolitical safe-haven demand + hawkish pricing + a technically intact long structure make it more likely that DXY consolidates higher and tests the 102 level.
📉 Bearish over the long run: Wall Street’s mainstream investment banks expect DXY to fall another ~3% versus the current level by end-2026; Morgan Stanley even looks for a 5% decline—“American exceptionalism” is starting to loosen, and the rate-cut cycle will ultimately arrive. The current hawkish support looks more like a phase rebound than a sustained trend reversal.
Inflation propelled by energy costs has a supply-side attribute, so its sustainability is uncertain. If the Middle East cools off and economic data weakens, the dollar could quickly give back its gains. Short-term📈 bulls can ride the momentum, while long-term📉 investors should watch for a valuation reversion triggered by tightening spreads.