9.115 billion shares unlocked on Thursday, with the closing price on the unlock day at 109.81. The script for a supply-driven sell-off was already written, but the market didn’t play out exactly as scripted.
For the price chart, see the cover and the accompanying image in the main text.
【What exactly has the lock-up been lifted?】
On August 6, U.S. Eastern Time, SpaceX ($SPCX ) released its first batch of roughly 911.5 million shares into tradeable status. The publicly reported explanation is that this corresponds to the first tranche after the IPO lock-up period, representing about 20% of the shares that insiders and employees are allowed to sell.
These shares are roughly 1.4 times the publicly traded float at the time of listing. Before the unlock, public float was around 639 million shares; after the unlock, the potential tradeable shares could rise to the vicinity of 1.55 billion shares.
The shares were already there. Employees and early shareholders simply received their first eligibility to sell. The company did not issue any new shares due to this unlock.
【Put the numbers in order first】
On August 4, it closed at 125.33. Roughly priced using that level, 911.5 million shares imply a notional market value of about $114 billion, and the media described it as one of the largest unlocks in U.S. stock history.
On August 5, it closed at 108.27. After the first quarterly report post-listing came out, the market focused on the gap—capital expenditures far higher than expectations for revenue. On that day, volume was about 207 million shares, and the close fell clearly from the prior day.
On August 6, the unlock day opened at 107.08, hit 115.75 as the high and 105.11 as the low, and closed at 109.81, with about 182 million shares traded. Compared with the previous close, it ticked slightly back upward; it didn’t keep getting sold through the intraday low.
【How to read this supply】
What the unlock grants is the right to sell. Forced sell orders are not part of the terms. Who sells, how much they sell, and at what price—that determines the impact.
SpaceX follows a staged release. In the published schedule, there is another calendar batch of around 319 million shares around August 20; releases will continue in September and October as well. Musk’s publicly disclosed lock-up for his own shares runs until about June 2027.
Thursday was only the first shot. Over the next six months to one year, the float will keep getting thicker. The scarcity premium that was supported by an extremely small float will be gradually diluted.
【Where does the market conflict show up?】
One side has a supply calendar that’s essentially fixed. The other side is that the close on the unlock day didn’t drop below the August 5 panic close by much.
I care about two things. First, whether the actual selling pressure after the unlock translated into volume and price action. Second, before the next tranche around August 20 arrives, whether the stock price can hold within the unlock-day range.
The “high capital expenditure” narrative in the earnings report is still there. The unlock simply pushes the liquidity issue to the front stage. How much the company will burn to fund Starship and AI-related investment will keep weighing on valuation discussions for the long term.
【How to use it (observation framework)】
You can compare these three “levels” to gauge the water level. Around 105 is the area near the unlock-day low. Around 110 is near the unlock-day close. 125 is near the close from the day before the earnings report.
If it repeatedly breaks below 105 on heavy volume and can’t come back, it suggests selling pressure has been realized strongly. If it stands firm above 110 after a volume surge, it suggests the first tranche of unlock impact was absorbed.
Validity warning: don’t directly read “the unlock day didn’t collapse” as a trend reversal, and don’t ignore the subsequent continuous releases in August 20, September, and October—this way of reading is very easy to be contradicted.
Do you believe the close at 109 on the unlock day means the selling pressure was absorbed, or that the later tranches will continue to pressure valuation?
Not investment advice.
Dragonfly Captain｜A finance blogger who likes analyzing data and candlestick charts.
Welcome to follow, like, and save.
$SPCX #SpaceX #美股解禁 #IPO lock-up period
For the price chart, see the cover and the accompanying image in the main text.
【What exactly has the lock-up been lifted?】
On August 6, U.S. Eastern Time, SpaceX ($SPCX ) released its first batch of roughly 911.5 million shares into tradeable status. The publicly reported explanation is that this corresponds to the first tranche after the IPO lock-up period, representing about 20% of the shares that insiders and employees are allowed to sell.
These shares are roughly 1.4 times the publicly traded float at the time of listing. Before the unlock, public float was around 639 million shares; after the unlock, the potential tradeable shares could rise to the vicinity of 1.55 billion shares.
The shares were already there. Employees and early shareholders simply received their first eligibility to sell. The company did not issue any new shares due to this unlock.
【Put the numbers in order first】
On August 4, it closed at 125.33. Roughly priced using that level, 911.5 million shares imply a notional market value of about $114 billion, and the media described it as one of the largest unlocks in U.S. stock history.
On August 5, it closed at 108.27. After the first quarterly report post-listing came out, the market focused on the gap—capital expenditures far higher than expectations for revenue. On that day, volume was about 207 million shares, and the close fell clearly from the prior day.
On August 6, the unlock day opened at 107.08, hit 115.75 as the high and 105.11 as the low, and closed at 109.81, with about 182 million shares traded. Compared with the previous close, it ticked slightly back upward; it didn’t keep getting sold through the intraday low.
【How to read this supply】
What the unlock grants is the right to sell. Forced sell orders are not part of the terms. Who sells, how much they sell, and at what price—that determines the impact.
SpaceX follows a staged release. In the published schedule, there is another calendar batch of around 319 million shares around August 20; releases will continue in September and October as well. Musk’s publicly disclosed lock-up for his own shares runs until about June 2027.
Thursday was only the first shot. Over the next six months to one year, the float will keep getting thicker. The scarcity premium that was supported by an extremely small float will be gradually diluted.
【Where does the market conflict show up?】
One side has a supply calendar that’s essentially fixed. The other side is that the close on the unlock day didn’t drop below the August 5 panic close by much.
I care about two things. First, whether the actual selling pressure after the unlock translated into volume and price action. Second, before the next tranche around August 20 arrives, whether the stock price can hold within the unlock-day range.
The “high capital expenditure” narrative in the earnings report is still there. The unlock simply pushes the liquidity issue to the front stage. How much the company will burn to fund Starship and AI-related investment will keep weighing on valuation discussions for the long term.
【How to use it (observation framework)】
You can compare these three “levels” to gauge the water level. Around 105 is the area near the unlock-day low. Around 110 is near the unlock-day close. 125 is near the close from the day before the earnings report.
If it repeatedly breaks below 105 on heavy volume and can’t come back, it suggests selling pressure has been realized strongly. If it stands firm above 110 after a volume surge, it suggests the first tranche of unlock impact was absorbed.
Validity warning: don’t directly read “the unlock day didn’t collapse” as a trend reversal, and don’t ignore the subsequent continuous releases in August 20, September, and October—this way of reading is very easy to be contradicted.
Do you believe the close at 109 on the unlock day means the selling pressure was absorbed, or that the later tranches will continue to pressure valuation?
Not investment advice.
Dragonfly Captain｜A finance blogger who likes analyzing data and candlestick charts.
Welcome to follow, like, and save.
$SPCX #SpaceX #美股解禁 #IPO lock-up period