On Polymarket, “Will the ‘Clarity Bill’ be signed into law by the end of the year?” prediction…
Yesterday afternoon, a whopping 400k u order suddenly appeared—bought “NO” at the market price.
It directly smashed the probability of a signing by year-end from 23% down to 13%.
This caused a lot of LP reward players to take heavy losses; I also suffered a small loss myself.
Actually, this market was already strange yesterday—there was a 2000u reward, and I even checked to confirm it wasn’t an official reward.
So I’ve been keeping an eye out for big players. You can’t fully dodge it when the rewards are so massive, but I was still careful.
I think the current probabilities are being underestimated. Without considering any external developments, just analyzing it from the trading perspective:
There are mainly two reasons:
1️⃣
After the event happened, liquidity providers received a large number of orders. Eager to sell and cut losses, they kept pushing prices down by selling, while buy orders couldn’t keep up—creating a downward death spiral.
So the probability right now isn’t truly reflecting the real market.
2️⃣
Some early “NO” holders will take profit here, and not everyone is fully convinced of their choice.
So once the price stabilizes at this level, it will most likely bounce. The orders I got are still being held.
One more thing to note: the 2000u high-value reward is about to end. After that, liquidity will be much worse, and the market will be more fragile.
$BTC $ETH $MarsCoin
Yesterday afternoon, a whopping 400k u order suddenly appeared—bought “NO” at the market price.
It directly smashed the probability of a signing by year-end from 23% down to 13%.
This caused a lot of LP reward players to take heavy losses; I also suffered a small loss myself.
Actually, this market was already strange yesterday—there was a 2000u reward, and I even checked to confirm it wasn’t an official reward.
So I’ve been keeping an eye out for big players. You can’t fully dodge it when the rewards are so massive, but I was still careful.
I think the current probabilities are being underestimated. Without considering any external developments, just analyzing it from the trading perspective:
There are mainly two reasons:
1️⃣
After the event happened, liquidity providers received a large number of orders. Eager to sell and cut losses, they kept pushing prices down by selling, while buy orders couldn’t keep up—creating a downward death spiral.
So the probability right now isn’t truly reflecting the real market.
2️⃣
Some early “NO” holders will take profit here, and not everyone is fully convinced of their choice.
So once the price stabilizes at this level, it will most likely bounce. The orders I got are still being held.
One more thing to note: the 2000u high-value reward is about to end. After that, liquidity will be much worse, and the market will be more fragile.
$BTC $ETH $MarsCoin