I’ve been watching SanDisk closely these past few weeks. This stock really delivers an intense, full-blown cycle-stock frenzy. In the early stage, it rode the AI storage boom and surged relentlessly, setting new all-time highs. A lot of people made a fortune. But after the peak, it immediately went through a violent pullback, with the maximum drawdown being extremely frightening.
To be honest, the company’s fundamentals haven’t completely fallen apart. It has many major customers and long-term supply contract orders, and the NAND flash industry’s supply-demand situation is still relatively tight—its earnings base is still there. However, the stock rose too fast at the beginning, and valuations were pushed to very high levels. Once sector sentiment cools off, profit-takers rush to exit aggressively, and the share price just can’t hold up.
Recently, there’s been another rebound. But there’s a heavy amount of trapped supply above, so it’s not as simple as casually breaking to new highs again. Right now it’s a tug-of-war between sentiment and fundamentals: on one side is AI storage’s long-term demand, and on the other the market’s concern about whether a high valuation can hold.
My take is that this stock is extremely volatile—up and down is the norm. Don’t just assume that because it’s down a lot, it’s automatically a golden opportunity. And don’t blindly rush in just because there’s a rebound. Future earnings report data will be an important signal—whether performance can match today’s share price. In terms of trading, you must control your position size. For high-volatility instruments, the risks are right out in the open—don’t let the market move your emotions and decisions.
#TradFi晒单
To be honest, the company’s fundamentals haven’t completely fallen apart. It has many major customers and long-term supply contract orders, and the NAND flash industry’s supply-demand situation is still relatively tight—its earnings base is still there. However, the stock rose too fast at the beginning, and valuations were pushed to very high levels. Once sector sentiment cools off, profit-takers rush to exit aggressively, and the share price just can’t hold up.
Recently, there’s been another rebound. But there’s a heavy amount of trapped supply above, so it’s not as simple as casually breaking to new highs again. Right now it’s a tug-of-war between sentiment and fundamentals: on one side is AI storage’s long-term demand, and on the other the market’s concern about whether a high valuation can hold.
My take is that this stock is extremely volatile—up and down is the norm. Don’t just assume that because it’s down a lot, it’s automatically a golden opportunity. And don’t blindly rush in just because there’s a rebound. Future earnings report data will be an important signal—whether performance can match today’s share price. In terms of trading, you must control your position size. For high-volatility instruments, the risks are right out in the open—don’t let the market move your emotions and decisions.
#TradFi晒单