The one-hour indicator has a dead cross and weakens; the long upper wick at the high releases a signal—will the pullback be just an adjustment, or will it turn bearish?
After the market surged and then started to fall, many friends are stuck on this question: is this just a brief pullback, or has the uptrend already ended? Today we’ll speak plainly and break down the current signals step by step using candlesticks, indicators, and trading volume.
First, look at the candlesticks. On the one-hour timeframe, there’s a candle with a long upper wick. The price pushed to around 64,500, and sell pressure suddenly surged—this is a clear signal of a short-term pullback.
On the daily chart, yesterday’s candle was also a bullish candle with an upper wick. Bulls tried to push to higher highs but met resistance and fell back. The good news is that the close still held above the opening price, and buy orders are still providing support below; for now, it hasn’t fully collapsed.
Next, check the indicators. On the one-hour chart, MACD has already formed a dead cross and is heading downward. The green histogram bars are gradually expanding, and short-term bearish momentum has the upper hand.
RSI is slipping down from the high level. Upward momentum is clearly weakening, but it hasn’t reached the oversold zone yet. That suggests the pullback still has room to play out—it hasn’t already bottomed.
The price has broken below the short-term moving average EMA7, and the short-term moving average has turned downward, meaning the short-term trend is weakening. However, the price is still above the longer-term moving averages EMA30 and EMA120. The bigger bullish structure hasn’t been broken. These two moving averages are key support levels to watch next.
Then look at volume. Compared with the previous phase, the trading volume during this pullback is smaller, indicating that the strength of the sell-off is decreasing. Everyone is starting to watch and wait, and there hasn’t been a panic-style selloff with a volume expansion and a sharp drop.
If we extend to the monthly chart, the rise in July came with increased volume, confirming the start of a bullish phase. August has only just begun; overall volume isn’t that large. How volume changes going forward still needs to be continuously observed—whether the trend can keep moving in that direction.
Overall, the current picture suggests this is only a short-term pullback and repair. The longer-term broader trend is still mildly bullish. In the short term, treat the move as a pullback and adjustment. The key is whether support from the longer-term moving averages can be held. Then, use the post-pullback price action to judge whether the pullback is truly over.
For execution, watch the support effectiveness around 63,600. On the upside, resistance is at 64,300 and 64,900.
The author’s personal opinion in this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. For risk investment, be cautious—principal is supreme; profits and losses are your own. $BTC
After the market surged and then started to fall, many friends are stuck on this question: is this just a brief pullback, or has the uptrend already ended? Today we’ll speak plainly and break down the current signals step by step using candlesticks, indicators, and trading volume.
First, look at the candlesticks. On the one-hour timeframe, there’s a candle with a long upper wick. The price pushed to around 64,500, and sell pressure suddenly surged—this is a clear signal of a short-term pullback.
On the daily chart, yesterday’s candle was also a bullish candle with an upper wick. Bulls tried to push to higher highs but met resistance and fell back. The good news is that the close still held above the opening price, and buy orders are still providing support below; for now, it hasn’t fully collapsed.
Next, check the indicators. On the one-hour chart, MACD has already formed a dead cross and is heading downward. The green histogram bars are gradually expanding, and short-term bearish momentum has the upper hand.
RSI is slipping down from the high level. Upward momentum is clearly weakening, but it hasn’t reached the oversold zone yet. That suggests the pullback still has room to play out—it hasn’t already bottomed.
The price has broken below the short-term moving average EMA7, and the short-term moving average has turned downward, meaning the short-term trend is weakening. However, the price is still above the longer-term moving averages EMA30 and EMA120. The bigger bullish structure hasn’t been broken. These two moving averages are key support levels to watch next.
Then look at volume. Compared with the previous phase, the trading volume during this pullback is smaller, indicating that the strength of the sell-off is decreasing. Everyone is starting to watch and wait, and there hasn’t been a panic-style selloff with a volume expansion and a sharp drop.
If we extend to the monthly chart, the rise in July came with increased volume, confirming the start of a bullish phase. August has only just begun; overall volume isn’t that large. How volume changes going forward still needs to be continuously observed—whether the trend can keep moving in that direction.
Overall, the current picture suggests this is only a short-term pullback and repair. The longer-term broader trend is still mildly bullish. In the short term, treat the move as a pullback and adjustment. The key is whether support from the longer-term moving averages can be held. Then, use the post-pullback price action to judge whether the pullback is truly over.
For execution, watch the support effectiveness around 63,600. On the upside, resistance is at 64,300 and 64,900.
The author’s personal opinion in this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. For risk investment, be cautious—principal is supreme; profits and losses are your own. $BTC