The cryptocurrency market has been experiencing overall fluctuations and corrections in recent days.
Macro drivers are limited (no new actions from the Fed, Senate's cryptocurrency market structure bill further delayed, opposed by Coinbase and other industry players + disagreements among legislators), with funds preferring to shift towards 'safe-haven + high beta' assets. Main highlights: InfoFi ecosystem cleanup continues: After platform X (Nikita Bier) officially cut off the rewards API, tokens like KAITO remain under pressure (despite a slight rebound, community discussions have shifted towards 'quality content' and cross-platform pivoting, as Mindo AI emphasizes results-oriented KOL collaborations).
The privacy coin sector has been reinforced for the second time: Monero has reached a new ATH (due to hacker fund inflow theories), with Dash/Zcash and others following suit, benefiting from regulatory uncertainty (bill delays squeezing transparent chains).
Gaming/P2E unexpected revival: Axie Infinity, DUSK, etc. surged, PlayToEarn and breeding categories leading, NFT floor prices warmed up (Creepz, rektguy, etc. +7-15%), possibly driven by institutional reports (mentioned in the 2025 annual report) and low-level rotation.
Current market situation (data from January 16 evening): BTC dominance rebounded, altcoin differentiation is significant: privacy/gaming outperforming, meme/DeFi are flat.
Currency research: Monero (XMR)
Current performance: Price around $820-850 range (small pullback after re-setting ATH), trading volume has increased, on-chain active addresses have reached recent highs. Mainstream view: ZachXBT pointed out that hacker social engineering attack funds converted into XMR pushed up the price; regulatory bill delays + global delisting reinforce privacy demand, with funds rotating out of transparent assets. Unique perspective: The 'catalyst vs amplifier' of hacker funds and network externality premium.
Mainstream stops at 'hacker influx = speculative pump', but ignores that this is just an amplifier, not the root: Monero's 'hedging externality' formed during the bill delay period (uncertainty of on-chain reporting obligations) — different from Zcash's optional privacy that can be tracked, XMR's full default privacy + tail emissions make it an 'invisible bridge' for high-net-worth/illegal funds when institutions dare not hold openly. Subtle on-chain signals that few notice: Recent accumulation ratio of large addresses rises (>10k XMR addresses increased by 15%), but these are not purely hacker wallets; rather, they are mixed coins dispersed to long-term holdings, reinforcing network effects — real usage demand (cross-border/donations) resonates with gray funds, forming supply tightness (exchange balances at low levels, high P2P premiums).
Comparing with other privacy coins: XMR's CPU miner retail dominance, in the AI/GPU concentrated era, provides 'antitrust safe budget', potentially attracting funds concerned about centralization (rather than pure criminal narratives). If the bill is further delayed (increased division among lawmakers), XMR will become not just a beta plaything, but a 'digital cash anchor during the regulatory gray period'.
Short-term: Risk of pullback after overheating (support at 780-800), but if hacker/hedging narratives continue, easy to re-test 900+. Mid-term: It is the 'essential asset' in the privacy sector most resistant to macro noise.
Currency research: Axie Infinity (AXS)
Current performance: Price surged by 22% (specific price not detailed, but trending first), leading the gaming sector in 24h, Ronin chain TVL and active users rose simultaneously. NFT collections (like Creepz related) saw widespread increase in floor prices. Mainstream view: Low-level rotation in P2E category + NFT revival (2025 industry report mentions gaming potential); during market correction, high-beta old projects attract funds for upward chasing. Unique perspective: The 'deflationary closed loop' of breeding mechanism reactivated in a sluggish market.
AXS is often seen as a relic of 2021, with the mainstream only mentioning 'rotational revival', but ignoring its breeding system's invisible deflationary effect in the current environment of 'institutional wait-and-see + retail fatigue': New Axie minting requires burning AXS/SLP, recent breeding activity surged (Ronin data +30%), not purely speculative, but low-priced users hoarding 'digital pets' as hedging entertainment — regulatory delays scare away DeFi yield farmers, while gaming provides a 'low-threshold sense of participation' without KYC pressure, forming a self-reinforcing cycle: breeding burns coins → supply decreases → floor prices stabilize → more users enter (especially in emerging markets).
A rarely mentioned comparison: Unlike pure meme without anchors, Axie's Ronin sidechain (low fees + mobile-friendly) provides 'retail-friendly infrastructure' during Solana's congestion period, attracting returning old users from 2021 + new geeks (potential of land gameplay after Origin upgrade). This, after the InfoFi cleanup (noise reduction), brings back real community discussions, potentially filling the 'social + yield' gap rather than simply replaying P2E.
Short-term: High risk of pullback after surge (support at previous lows), but if the gaming category continues to heat up (report-driven), targets easily exceed 30-50% gains. Mid to long-term: It is the 'most ecologically sticky' bridge among old coins, providing retail cushioning before institutional RWA. Overall: No major stimuli in the market these days, but InfoFi cleanup + bill delays resonate, driving structural opportunities in privacy and gaming — the former being a hedging necessity, and the latter a low-level entertainment rotation. The uniqueness lies in mechanism externalities (hackers amplifying privacy, breeding burning coins stabilizing gaming), which might be one of the few narratives independent of BTC in early 2026. Risks: High pullback + regulatory variables, privacy/gaming volatility is severe, and investment requires strict stop-loss.