After a sequence of $BTC months of continuous decline, this is the first time the price touched the lower Bollinger Band and rebounded. I’m still defining this as a “rebound” rather than a “reversal,” because I haven’t seen signals of large-scale institutional accumulation at the bottom yet. The rebound strength is limited, and the liquidity at the bottom may be tested again.
In a bear market, bottoming usually happens in two ways: (1) long-term sideways consolidation that slowly wears down the market and absorbs orders, for example the 2018 BTC bear market, which traded around the 3000 level for about half a year. (2) a sudden liquidation-style crash that clears liquidity at the weekly level, forming a panic bottom. Look at BTC’s走势 after May 19, 2021—after that, given the current situation, a single test of the monthly lower band isn’t enough to confirm a reversal. Personally, I’m more focused on the 51,000–47,000 zone. This area is also the zone where BTC’s concentrated turnover of holdings occurred during these two bull-market cycles.
For short-term trading, watch support around 62,000. If it breaks down, it could test 60,000. For rebound targets, watch the 64,000 area for potential short setups; place a stop loss above 64,800 and target the 61,000 region. A true bottom requires seeing panic sell-off dissipate and the price stop making new lows. At least for now, I haven’t seen that signal.
In a bear market, bottoming usually happens in two ways: (1) long-term sideways consolidation that slowly wears down the market and absorbs orders, for example the 2018 BTC bear market, which traded around the 3000 level for about half a year. (2) a sudden liquidation-style crash that clears liquidity at the weekly level, forming a panic bottom. Look at BTC’s走势 after May 19, 2021—after that, given the current situation, a single test of the monthly lower band isn’t enough to confirm a reversal. Personally, I’m more focused on the 51,000–47,000 zone. This area is also the zone where BTC’s concentrated turnover of holdings occurred during these two bull-market cycles.
For short-term trading, watch support around 62,000. If it breaks down, it could test 60,000. For rebound targets, watch the 64,000 area for potential short setups; place a stop loss above 64,800 and target the 61,000 region. A true bottom requires seeing panic sell-off dissipate and the price stop making new lows. At least for now, I haven’t seen that signal.
