The shift in macroeconomic policy is becoming a key driving force in the Bitcoin market, with effects that may go beyond short-term technical fluctuations. In early 2026, U.S. inflation data unexpectedly fell, with core CPI remaining at 2.7% and core indicators below expectations, reinforcing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. This easing of monetary policy has historically favored risk assets like Bitcoin.
Historical data provides strong references. In the six months before and after the Fed's rate cut cycle begins, Bitcoin's average increase reached 150%. More critically, the decline in real interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets like gold and silver, while Bitcoin's 'digital gold' attribute similarly benefits. Currently, silver prices have surpassed $90 per ounce for the first time, and gold is nearing historical highs, indicating the market's demand for hedging against a loose environment and monetary instability. Bitcoin is likely to become the next destination for this type of capital.
Political factors are also subtly propelling this. Recent rumors regarding criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chair Powell and investigations by the Department of Justice have sparked deep concerns in the market about the independence of monetary policy. Although this uncertainty may cause volatility in the short term, it could encourage funds to flow into decentralized hard assets in the medium to long term. The 'non-sovereign' characteristic of Bitcoin is highlighted in this environment.
The global liquidity pattern may be undergoing a more significant change. South Korea plans to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, the EU's MiCA legislation is being fully implemented, and Hong Kong is accelerating ETF approvals. This increase in regulatory clarity is moving crypto assets from the 'marginal zone' to 'mainstream allocation.' In particular, if 1%-2% of global traditional investment portfolios are allocated to Bitcoin, it could introduce trillions of dollars in incremental funds, fundamentally changing its valuation logic.
The resonance of macroeconomics and policies has a systemic and long-term impact on Bitcoin. Investors need to recognize that the pricing logic of Bitcoin is no longer limited to supply and demand but is deeply embedded in the grand narrative of global capital flows.
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