The Bitcoin market is showing a resonance between technical and funding aspects, with several key indicators indicating that a breakthrough trend has matured. On January 14, 2026, Bitcoin saw a daily increase of over 5%, breaking through the $96,000 mark, with significantly increased trading volume, forming a classic 'volume breakout' pattern. The uniqueness of this rise lies in the fact that it occurred after a two-week high-level consolidation, during which the price fluctuated repeatedly in the range of $87,000 to $94,000, and the closing price after the breakout has stabilized above $96,000, marking the market's completion of directional choice.
From a technical indicator perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading above the 200-day moving average (red), and this moving average continues to incline upwards, forming a key long-term support. Although the price is still below the 100-day and 50-day moving averages, both are trending flat and concentrated in the $92,000 to $94,000 range, forming dynamic resistance. If the price can continue to break through this area, it will open up upward space. More notably, the Bollinger Bands' width has begun to expand after narrowing, showing a return of volatility, while the price is running close to the upper band, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Data from the derivatives market also supports a bullish outlook. The Bitcoin options market underwent a large-scale position liquidation by the end of 2025, with over 45% of open contracts being reset, eliminating the 'structural price peg' effect previously imposed on the market by market makers' hedging. This reset allows prices to more freely reflect true supply and demand. Meanwhile, open contracts in the futures market are beginning to rise, indicating that traders prefer to maintain their positions rather than close them, which typically signals an increase in volatility and the arrival of a trending market.
On-chain data further confirms the optimistic signals from the technical perspective. The Bitcoin balances on exchanges continue to decline, with non-liquid supply (i.e., wallets with almost no liquidity history) accounting for 68% of the total Bitcoin supply, indicating that supply is shifting from weak hands to strong hands. At the same time, the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) is around $99,100; if the price can stabilize above this level, it will confirm a complete turnaround in market confidence.
Overall, the technical aspects of Bitcoin have key elements for a breakthrough: price breaking out of the consolidation range, accompanying trading volume, the lifting of restrictions in the derivatives market, and a tightening supply on the chain. Investors should closely monitor the gains and losses at the $96,000 level; if a valid breakthrough occurs, the next target could be $99,500 or even $102,000.
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