Everyone, guess how August, September, and October might unfold—so most people don’t get on the train and miss out on the bottom-buying opportunity. We need to learn to operate against human nature.
Operating against human nature: First, close your eyes and let yourself relax. Then use your current way of thinking to trade Bitcoin—ask yourself when you would buy and sell, which month you’d buy, whether you’d do swing trades, how much the price would have to drop before you buy in or get out. For those already on the train, finally ask yourself: at what level would Bitcoin’s drop become unbearable for me? At what point would I simply be unable to tolerate it and exit?
So, based on your thoughts, what would cause most people to miss out or get stuck holding the bag?
My personal idea is this: In August, there’s a spike upward with a needle-like push, and then it ultimately drops about 20%. The closing outcome depends on broader market conditions, and there are two scenarios. 1) If the bill passes, it first surges upward to create the illusion that a bull market has arrived—after the market digests the good news, it then rapidly drops hard and drives the price down with another downward “needle” of about 20%. Then it quickly rallies 10%–15%. At that point, people feel it’s finally “over,” and they start buying again—only for it to continue falling, then enter a wide-range consolidation. Consolidation lasts until November, with an amplitude greater than 10,000 U. 2) If the bill does not pass, it spikes upward but not too high, and then begins a fast, heavy selloff—so severe that people feel Bitcoin is basically finished. Institutional capital starts to withdraw on a large scale, and then everyone becomes afraid to buy. At this moment, institutions and big whales secretly start both selling pressure and bottom-fishing at the same time, entering a grinding-down phase until the mid-November election outcome lands. After that, the bull market begins—violent upside momentum, throwing off most people.
This is my personal pre-trial scenario for Bitcoin. What about you?
Operating against human nature: First, close your eyes and let yourself relax. Then use your current way of thinking to trade Bitcoin—ask yourself when you would buy and sell, which month you’d buy, whether you’d do swing trades, how much the price would have to drop before you buy in or get out. For those already on the train, finally ask yourself: at what level would Bitcoin’s drop become unbearable for me? At what point would I simply be unable to tolerate it and exit?
So, based on your thoughts, what would cause most people to miss out or get stuck holding the bag?
My personal idea is this: In August, there’s a spike upward with a needle-like push, and then it ultimately drops about 20%. The closing outcome depends on broader market conditions, and there are two scenarios. 1) If the bill passes, it first surges upward to create the illusion that a bull market has arrived—after the market digests the good news, it then rapidly drops hard and drives the price down with another downward “needle” of about 20%. Then it quickly rallies 10%–15%. At that point, people feel it’s finally “over,” and they start buying again—only for it to continue falling, then enter a wide-range consolidation. Consolidation lasts until November, with an amplitude greater than 10,000 U. 2) If the bill does not pass, it spikes upward but not too high, and then begins a fast, heavy selloff—so severe that people feel Bitcoin is basically finished. Institutional capital starts to withdraw on a large scale, and then everyone becomes afraid to buy. At this moment, institutions and big whales secretly start both selling pressure and bottom-fishing at the same time, entering a grinding-down phase until the mid-November election outcome lands. After that, the bull market begins—violent upside momentum, throwing off most people.
This is my personal pre-trial scenario for Bitcoin. What about you?