The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut rhythm has been set for the first half of the year, and the probability of a rate cut before June is slim.

This week, several Federal Reserve voting committee members have frequently spoken publicly, conveying two important messages.

Firstly, the unified statement indicates a firm commitment to defending the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Secondly, apart from Milei, who is a disruptor, it is generally believed that the economy is resilient and inflation remains high, so policies need to stay restrictive. The market expects that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates again until June.

Let's focus on the impact on the scripts of various market trends.

Continue to maintain a high interest rate dormant period, which is a suppression on the performance of the US stock market. The direct impact is that if negative factors are compounded, it is easy to plummet, and then the positive stimuli will be constrained in the rise. This directly weakens the foundation for a broad rise in US stocks, and the market's shift from 'loose expectation-driven' to 'fundamentals-driven' characteristics will become increasingly evident.

This script has the highest probability.

As a high-risk asset, crypto is far more sensitive to expectations of liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve than traditional stock markets. The signal of not lowering interest rates before June is equivalent to directly shattering the market's fantasy of short-term liquidity injections, and the overall trend will be under pressure.

Similar to the logic of the US stock market, the overall bullish trend in the crypto market is difficult to replicate. The height of the rebound stimulated by favorable factors will be strictly limited, and once combined with negative factors such as industry explosions, the probability of a sharp decline will significantly increase. Recently, this wave of upward movement seems to be a weekly level rebound but not a reversal.

Expectations for liquidity easing have been hit, which also imposes certain restrictions on gold and silver. After all, maintaining high real interest rates will reduce the attractiveness of allocating non-interest-bearing assets like gold. However, gold and silver are not lacking major news to hedge against pressure, so caution in chasing higher prices is advised.

The market rhythm has already changed. Pay attention to Lao Xu for the latest situation and continue to follow up.

BTC SOL MET