#特朗普取消打击伊朗待协议 On August 1st, Trump suddenly announced the cancellation of a planned U.S. military strike on Iran. The slogan was: "The gun is already loaded, waiting for the agreement to take effect." In essence, this is the classic script of extreme pressure with a last-minute pullback—not a real intention to launch a full-scale war.
There are three driving forces behind it: First, the Saudi Crown Prince personally called to dissuade him. Gulf countries fear Iranian retaliation against their own energy lifelines and collectively pressured the White House. Second, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff assessed that airstrikes alone could not achieve the strategic goals, and that there is a shortage of air-defense interception missiles—moving ahead recklessly would spark severe panic in global energy markets. Third, ahead of the midterm elections, the U.S. public does not support getting pulled into a full-scale war. Trump’s core demand has always been to force a deal by using the threat of war.
The market instantly re-prices: Crude oil CL and BZ off-book trading fell by over 6.8% to $83.93 per barrel. The S&P 500 (SPY) 📈 saw a short-term boost. COMEX gold (XAU) is fluctuating at a high level between safe-haven demand and rate expectations.
📈📉 Outlook: In the short term, crude oil BZ and CL 📉, U.S. stocks VOO 📈, and gold XAU 📈 (the safe-haven premium has not fully disappeared). Looking long term, if the agreement keeps being revised or delayed, crude oil and gold are still more likely to trend 📈, while risk assets 📉—the U.S.-Iran standoff is far from over, and the risk premium from threats to Hormuz shipping will not be fully unwound.
$CL
$BZ
$XAU
There are three driving forces behind it: First, the Saudi Crown Prince personally called to dissuade him. Gulf countries fear Iranian retaliation against their own energy lifelines and collectively pressured the White House. Second, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff assessed that airstrikes alone could not achieve the strategic goals, and that there is a shortage of air-defense interception missiles—moving ahead recklessly would spark severe panic in global energy markets. Third, ahead of the midterm elections, the U.S. public does not support getting pulled into a full-scale war. Trump’s core demand has always been to force a deal by using the threat of war.
The market instantly re-prices: Crude oil CL and BZ off-book trading fell by over 6.8% to $83.93 per barrel. The S&P 500 (SPY) 📈 saw a short-term boost. COMEX gold (XAU) is fluctuating at a high level between safe-haven demand and rate expectations.
📈📉 Outlook: In the short term, crude oil BZ and CL 📉, U.S. stocks VOO 📈, and gold XAU 📈 (the safe-haven premium has not fully disappeared). Looking long term, if the agreement keeps being revised or delayed, crude oil and gold are still more likely to trend 📈, while risk assets 📉—the U.S.-Iran standoff is far from over, and the risk premium from threats to Hormuz shipping will not be fully unwound.
$CL
$BZ
$XAU