Everyone knows that this round (2024 halving cycle) altseason has not yet arrived; currently, it's more about scattered rotation rather than a full-scale explosion. Many people say there's no altseason anymore, but after my research, I was surprised to find that:
We are currently at the same time node as the previous cycle, just before the explosion of the altcoin season.
The current BTC correction from the 2025 peak is around 20-25%, which is highly similar to the position after the previous peak (2021 cycle) before the first major correction. That correction was indeed followed by the altseason. Current key market data (January 15, 2026)
BTC Dominance: about 58-59% (still at historical highs, institutional funds prefer BTC).
Altcoin Season Index: 37-55 (Blockchain Center data 37, recent high point 55; >75 confirms altseason).
Market performance: some alts (like ETH, SOL, certain mid-caps) have rebounded, but most alts vs BTC remain weak, and the total market value rotation is not obvious.
Comparison of the previous cycle to the last one (after the 2020 halving):
April-May 2021: BTC pulled back from 64k to 30k (a drop of ~50%), dominance briefly rose before starting to decline.
After the pullback: capital rotation, a big explosion of alts from summer to autumn (many alts outperform BTC several times, dominance drops below 40%).
Key trigger: dominance breaks the trend line + liquidity easing.
Similar points this round:
The current pullback magnitude (from 126k to 95k) is similar to the early phase of 2021.
Dominance repeatedly faces resistance in the 58-60% range, many charts show a mirrored rejection pattern from 2021.
If replicated: this time it might be the 'last wash', if dominance drops below 55%, it could trigger a rotation.
Differences (this round may be different):
Institutional ETFs dominate, funds are more sticky to BTC, altseason may be delayed/weakened/selective (only blue-chip alts like ETH, SOL benefit).
Some analysts believe the traditional four-year cycle has changed, and if the 2026 altseason comes, it will be shorter and more narrative-driven (AI, RWA, etc.).
The following historical overlay charts and dominance cycle comparisons show that the current position indeed resembles the eve of an altseason (red circles indicate similar phases):
The overall judgment is that this could be the last pullback before the altcoin season. The community and analysts are divided: half are optimistic about a rotation in the first half of 2026 (if dominance breaks the 58% support, targeting 45-50%); the other half believe it won't replay classically, and altcoins will only pump locally.
Short-term focus:
- We are now at the same critical timing point as in the previous cycle, just before the altseason breakout
There is still room for downside risk (if BTC breaks 90k, another wash might occur). Not investment advice, crypto is highly volatile, DYOR, control your positions.$BTC
