The deepest transformation in the Bitcoin market stems from its supply structure shifting from 'elastic issuance' to 'rigid scarcity'. Currently, non-liquid supply accounts for 68%, while exchange balances represent only 12.7% of circulating supply. This contradiction between shrinking supply and growing institutional demand is driving a revaluation of Bitcoin's worth. From the stock-to-flow model to on-chain cost distribution, multiple indicators show that Bitcoin's scarcity value has entered a new phase.
The paradigm shift in the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model is key to understanding scarcity. Traditional S2F models focus solely on new supply (approximately 3.6% annually), but actual circulating supply is declining much faster than theoretical projections. According to Glassnode data, net capital inflows on-chain reached $718.7 billion over the past year, while non-liquid supply increased by 14.3 million BTC during the same period. This means new capital inflows must compete for an ever-decreasing pool of liquid coins, creating a 'capital chasing limited inventory' dynamic. This mechanism resembles the 'residual demand model' in commodity markets: when tradable inventory drops to a critical threshold, even minor changes in demand can trigger significant price volatility.
The cost basis of long-term holders has become an important support line. Currently, the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) is $99,100, and whether the price can stabilize above this level is key to determining the continuation of the trend. Historically, when the price breaks through the STH cost basis and stabilizes, the average increase has been 150% (this pattern has been verified in the 2016 and 2020 cycles). More importantly, there is a significant gap between the long-term holder cost basis (approximately $58,000) and the current price, which means most early investors are still in profit and do not face urgent selling pressure.
The supply shock of the halving mechanism has been magnified in the institutional era. After the fourth halving, Bitcoin's daily production dropped to 900 coins, with an annualized inflation rate of about 1.7%, lower than gold's 1.8%. However, unlike gold, the institutional demand for Bitcoin is growing exponentially—just BlackRock's IBIT alone can see net inflows reaching $3.24 billion in a single week, equivalent to 90 times the daily output. This supply-demand mismatch is more apparent in micro trades: when large buy orders occur, the insufficient depth of the exchange's order book often leads to increased slippage. For example, in September 2025, a $50 million buy order triggered a 3% spike in Bitcoin's price.
The dense areas of on-chain cost distribution provide important resistance support references. Currently, the market cost is densely distributed across two ranges: one is $85,000 to $92,000 (the Q4 2025 consolidation range), and the other is $114,000 to $123,000 (historical peak area). When the price approaches the lower cost area, holders are more reluctant to sell; while breaking through the upper cost area may create resistance from the freed positions. The current price is between the two, indicating that once the upper pressure is broken, it may quickly open up upward space.
For investors, the realization of scarcity value depends on the liquidity cycling mechanism. The Bitcoin ecosystem is forming a cycle of 'mining - institutional accumulation - ETFization - long-term locking': miners produce 900 BTC daily, of which about 30% is directly purchased by institutions and transferred to cold wallets; ETFs see daily net inflows corresponding to about 2,400 BTC of demand (calculated at a price of $10,000); while long-term holders lock up more than 1 million BTC annually. This cycle causes the actual circulating supply to shrink at a rate of about 15% per year, while demand steadily increases with institutional entry.
Scarcity is not only a numerical characteristic but also a product of market behavior. When investor consensus shifts from 'trading tool' to 'store of value,' Bitcoin's valuation logic will be closer to scarce assets like gold and art rather than stocks. VanEck predicts that if Bitcoin handles 5%-10% of global trade settlements, its price could reach $2.9 million. Although this target seems distant, a directional trend is already apparent: as of January 2026, Bitcoin's annualized volatility has decreased from over 100% in the early days to 45%, approaching that of emerging market stocks, indicating its asset characteristics are maturing.
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