In financial markets, genuine trend shifts often occur quietly beneath the surface of the noise. After Bitcoin recently broke through a key resistance level, the market did not experience the expected surge in selling pressure; instead, on-chain indicators showed an unusual calm. This calm reflects the ongoing accumulation by long-term holders (LTH) and institutional funds. Data shows that Bitcoin's exchange balance has dropped to its lowest level since 2018, accounting for only 12.7% of the circulating supply, while long-term holders control 71.2% of the coins. This optimized supply-demand structure lays a solid foundation for upward price movement.
The firm confidence of long-term holders is the core support of the current market. According to Glassnode statistics, addresses holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days have accumulated over 250,000 BTC since March 2025, with total holdings exceeding 14 million BTC. Meanwhile, short-term holders (STH) have significantly reduced their selling pressure during price corrections, indicating that market chips are shifting from 'weak hands' to 'strong hands.' This change in holding structure historically corresponds to mid-cycle characteristics of bull markets; for example, in the cycle from 2016 to 2017, a similar pattern propelled Bitcoin to rise over 10 times.
The systematic entry of institutional funds further strengthens the accumulation trend. BlackRock has accumulated 662,500 BTC through the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), accounting for 3% of the total, and its scale surpassed $70 billion in assets under management within 341 days, becoming the fastest-growing ETF in history. This ‘corporate treasury allocation’ model is forming structural buying: publicly listed companies are increasing their holdings by an average of 32,000 BTC per month, leading to a continuous contraction of exchange liquidity. It is worth noting that institutional buying is mostly stored in cold wallets rather than short-term trading, which further reduces the actual circulating supply.
The health of the derivatives market is another positive signal. Although Bitcoin options open interest has reached a new high of $54.6 billion, the proportion of call option trading has reached 30.8%, and the skewness is returning to the zero axis, indicating that market risk expression is tending towards balance. More importantly, market makers have turned net short in the range of $95,000 to $104,000, which means that their hedging behavior will passively boost the price when it rises. This change in the derivatives structure is highly similar to the market characteristics before the bull market began in 2020.
The essential difference between the current market and past cycles lies in the shift in the investment paradigm. Bitcoin is transitioning from a ‘retail-driven high-volatility asset’ to an ‘institutionally allocated macro hedge tool.’ VanEck predicts that if Bitcoin becomes the global settlement layer, its long-term value could reach $2.9 million, with an annualized return of 15%. The support for this outlook lies in: Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins, with only 900 newly issued per day after halving, while the marginal inflow of funds from the traditional financial world (such as 1% of global asset allocation) can trigger supply-demand imbalances.
For investors, the on-chain data provides not only price signals but also a real-time mapping of market sentiment. When long-term holders choose to silently accumulate, when institutional funds flow in daily through ETFs, and when the derivatives market is no longer excessively leveraged, the market is actually in a ‘quiet period before the explosion.’ History shows that real bull markets often start from places that no one pays attention to, rather than during the height of public excitement.@砸你乃个别 $BTC $ETH
