On December 4, 2025, Grayscale's Chainlink spot ETF (GLNK) listed on the NYSE, raising $41.5 million on its first day. During the same period, major whale addresses purchased 4.73 million LINK tokens (worth $68 million) within 48 hours. This dual positive catalyst drove LINK's weekly price increase by 8%, breaking through the key resistance level of $14.63. The unique feature of this ETF is that it brings the oracle sector into the traditional financial spotlight for the first time, upgrading LINK from a 'infrastructure tool' to a 'configurable asset' and initiating a valuation re-rating process.
The structural buying pressure of the ETF
GLNK operates on a physical-backed model, requiring 100% holding of the underlying LINK tokens. Based on the first-day scale, the fund needs to purchase approximately 280,000 LINK tokens, and ongoing daily net inflows will continuously drain exchange liquidity. Drawing from Bitcoin ETF experience, price sensitivity significantly increases when the fund's management scale reaches 5% of the circulating supply. Currently, LINK's circulating supply is about 560 million tokens. If the ETF scale reaches $1 billion (representing 3.2% of the circulating supply), it could trigger supply-demand imbalance. More critically, the ETF lowers the entry barrier for institutional investors—traditional funds previously unable to directly hold tokens due to custody and compliance restrictions can now allocate through stock accounts, leading to an exponential increase in potential buyers.
On-chain data reveals strengthening fundamentals
Whale activities are not isolated events. Chainlink's official team repurchased 109,000 LINK using protocol revenue in Q4 2025, initiating a deflationary mechanism similar to corporate stock buybacks. At the same time, staking volume reached a new high: approximately 28% of circulating LINK is locked in staking contracts with an annualized yield of 6.5%, attracting long-term holders. These changes have shifted LINK's supply dynamics from an "inflation model" to a "deflation model," with net circulating supply growth slowing to 1.2% in 2025—the lowest since 2020.
Structural opportunities in the oracle赛道
The core value of LINK lies in its network effects: serving over 3,000 DeFi projects and processing over $5 trillion in annualized transaction volume. As RWA (real-world asset) tokenization accelerates and demand for traditional financial data on-chain surges, oracles become indispensable middleware. For example, Citibank used Chainlink price feeds in a 2025 trial to handle bond settlements, highlighting its applicability in traditional finance. This dual demand from "DeFi + TraFi" upgrades LINK's revenue model from a gas fee model to a data service fee model, significantly improving profit visibility.
LINK's breakthrough signifies that the crypto market has entered a phase of assetization in niche赛道. Previously, only Bitcoin and Ethereum had access to ETF channels; now, the oracle leader has gained this privilege, signaling that more foundational protocols may be packaged into financial products. If the price breaks above $15 effectively (the cost zone for most holders), the next target range is $18–20.
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