#美日近30年来首次联合干预日元 For the first time in nearly 30 years, the U.S. and Japan jointly intervened in the yen. The direct trigger was the yen falling to its lowest level since 1986; at one point, the USD/JPY exchange rate nearly touched 163. There were three layers of “entanglement” behind the move: (1) oil prices rose due to developments in the Middle East, pushing up import costs; (2) Japan’s fiscal deficit continued to widen; and (3) the sizable interest-rate differential between the U.S. and Japan made carry trades prevalent—because the Federal Reserve stayed put while, even after Japan raised rates, its policy rate was still only 1%, trading that borrowed yen to buy dollar assets could not easily disappear.
On July 30, Japan’s Ministry of Finance acted unilaterally, with a single-day intervention scale of about 84.5 trillion yen (about $52.8 billion), widely suspected to be the largest one-day intervention in history. The New York Fed then, on behalf of the U.S. Treasury, sold euros and bought yen—marking the first time since 1998 that the U.S. side coordinated with real money. The core concern behind the U.S. “joining in,” is that a sharp yen drop could force Japan to sell U.S. Treasuries to fund its intervention, thereby raising the U.S.’ own financing costs.
Outlook:
Short term 📈: With intervention plus a short-seller scramble to cover, the yen may stabilize around 157 and even challenge 155. The USD/JPY exchange rate (linked to CME Group’s JPY futures) is likely to remain downward in the near term 📉.
Medium to long term 📉: As long as the U.S.-Japan interest-rate differential has not narrowed materially and the Bank of Japan’s rate hike in September falls short of expectations, the yen’s depreciation fundamentals are unlikely to change. The effect of intervention is therefore likely to be temporary.
On July 30, Japan’s Ministry of Finance acted unilaterally, with a single-day intervention scale of about 84.5 trillion yen (about $52.8 billion), widely suspected to be the largest one-day intervention in history. The New York Fed then, on behalf of the U.S. Treasury, sold euros and bought yen—marking the first time since 1998 that the U.S. side coordinated with real money. The core concern behind the U.S. “joining in,” is that a sharp yen drop could force Japan to sell U.S. Treasuries to fund its intervention, thereby raising the U.S.’ own financing costs.
Outlook:
Short term 📈: With intervention plus a short-seller scramble to cover, the yen may stabilize around 157 and even challenge 155. The USD/JPY exchange rate (linked to CME Group’s JPY futures) is likely to remain downward in the near term 📉.
Medium to long term 📉: As long as the U.S.-Japan interest-rate differential has not narrowed materially and the Bank of Japan’s rate hike in September falls short of expectations, the yen’s depreciation fundamentals are unlikely to change. The effect of intervention is therefore likely to be temporary.