Today, one chart to help you understand the FOMC statement
All earnings reports are meaningless in front of the FOMC. Even if earnings are great, they can’t break out of an independent trading trend. I can only say that this month’s market is for software stocks. Everyone, go take a look. And remember to diversify sectors—keep the “supermarket” open—your capital will be safer.
There’s another important thing: this time, there were 3 votes in favor of a rate hike. Everyone should pay attention—at the September FOMC, a rate hike is highly likely.
Key events for the rest of this week:
· Thursday 07/30 Beijing time 20:30 | GDP Q2 first estimate + June core PCE | Forecast: GDP around 2.0%, core PCE around 3.4% | Impact: Very high (the most important data of the week)
· Thursday 07/30 after market close | AAPL Q3 FY2026 earnings | Forecast: revenue growth 14–17% YoY | Impact: Very high (Cook’s last CEO earnings report + MacBook Neo supply data)
· Friday 07/31 Beijing time 20:30 | Initial jobless claims + University of Michigan consumer sentiment July final | Forecast: claims remain at a low level | Impact: Medium
GDP + PCE + AAPL—triple blasts on the same day. If GDP is below 2% → the probability of rate cuts spikes → growth stocks rebound. If PCE unexpectedly rises → growth stocks face renewed pressure. AAPL’s earnings are the last long stronghold among Mag7. If it misses, the already fragile sentiment after the FOMC will take another hit.
Yesterday’s feedback
· The FOMC held steady and kept the interest rate at 3.50–3.75%. A split Federal Reserve (3 votes supported a rate hike). Warsh clearly stated he would not waver in the face of inflation.
Market reaction: SOX -5.33% (yesterday’s projection: “If hawkish → SOX tests 10,500.” The actual close was 10,447; the forecast was accurate). All three major indices fell across the board. The VIX broke above 20. The Nasdaq 100 entered a correction range. The split FOMC was more hawkish than expected.
SOX’s four-day decline of -10% has already deeply priced in hawkishness. With technical oversold conditions plus a data day, two-way volatility will be intense. Don’t chase shorts or bottom-pick—wait until GDP + PCE land, then decide direction. VIX > 20 + a data day = cash is king.
#USStocks #TradingNotes
The above is my personal trading journal and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky—invest cautiously.
All earnings reports are meaningless in front of the FOMC. Even if earnings are great, they can’t break out of an independent trading trend. I can only say that this month’s market is for software stocks. Everyone, go take a look. And remember to diversify sectors—keep the “supermarket” open—your capital will be safer.
There’s another important thing: this time, there were 3 votes in favor of a rate hike. Everyone should pay attention—at the September FOMC, a rate hike is highly likely.
Key events for the rest of this week:
· Thursday 07/30 Beijing time 20:30 | GDP Q2 first estimate + June core PCE | Forecast: GDP around 2.0%, core PCE around 3.4% | Impact: Very high (the most important data of the week)
· Thursday 07/30 after market close | AAPL Q3 FY2026 earnings | Forecast: revenue growth 14–17% YoY | Impact: Very high (Cook’s last CEO earnings report + MacBook Neo supply data)
· Friday 07/31 Beijing time 20:30 | Initial jobless claims + University of Michigan consumer sentiment July final | Forecast: claims remain at a low level | Impact: Medium
GDP + PCE + AAPL—triple blasts on the same day. If GDP is below 2% → the probability of rate cuts spikes → growth stocks rebound. If PCE unexpectedly rises → growth stocks face renewed pressure. AAPL’s earnings are the last long stronghold among Mag7. If it misses, the already fragile sentiment after the FOMC will take another hit.
Yesterday’s feedback
· The FOMC held steady and kept the interest rate at 3.50–3.75%. A split Federal Reserve (3 votes supported a rate hike). Warsh clearly stated he would not waver in the face of inflation.
Market reaction: SOX -5.33% (yesterday’s projection: “If hawkish → SOX tests 10,500.” The actual close was 10,447; the forecast was accurate). All three major indices fell across the board. The VIX broke above 20. The Nasdaq 100 entered a correction range. The split FOMC was more hawkish than expected.
SOX’s four-day decline of -10% has already deeply priced in hawkishness. With technical oversold conditions plus a data day, two-way volatility will be intense. Don’t chase shorts or bottom-pick—wait until GDP + PCE land, then decide direction. VIX > 20 + a data day = cash is king.
#USStocks #TradingNotes
The above is my personal trading journal and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky—invest cautiously.