┈➤ Hynix revenue really fell short of the average expectations
According to the Yahoo platform, forecasts from 27 analysts at major investment banks worldwide:
◆26Q2 Hynix expected average revenue is ₩84.12 trillion,
◆Underestimated expectations are ₩76.6 trillion,
◆Overestimated expectations are ₩91.74 trillion.
and the actual earnings report data is ₩79.3187, only 3.55% above the underestimated expectations, while still 5.17% below the average expectations—let alone the overestimated expectations.
This should be the reason for today’s #Hynix big drop.
┈➤ Hynix EPS beat expectations
╰✦ EPS far exceeded expectations
Also on Yahoo Finance:
◆Hynix’s average EPS expectation for 26Q2: ₩70,975.38
◆Underestimated expectations ₩61,998.81
◆Overestimated expectations ₩76,447
The actual EPS in the earnings report was ₩131,478, which exceeded the highest estimate by 79.99%.
Of course, revenue came in below average expectations, but EPS far exceeded expectations. This difference should be here—likely from non-operating income. Hynix likely has some revenue growth; we can guess there may be some financial or technical adjustments, but it shouldn’t be massively inflated.
╰✦ Intraday pullback-to-close
EPS far exceeding expectations could be the reason for Hynix’s intraday price “pullback-to-close” pattern. Hynix opened at ₩1,567,000, hit a low of ₩1,246,000, and closed at ₩1,401,000.
The lower shadow is close in length to the real body. This pattern is not necessarily a reversal signal, but it could indicate a rebound.
┈➤ Hynix’s operating profit margin leads, but grows moderately
╰✦ Operating profit margin leads
Some friends believe that Hynix’s long-term HBM supply agreement locks in capacity, so it didn’t capture the DRAM price-rise windfall.
But even though long-term contracts lock in capacity, they don’t lock in prices—so this actually doesn’t affect Hynix’s revenue growth in the HBM field.
As for the benefits from DRAM price increases, in the DRAM segment, Samsung’s market share is higher than Hynix’s. However, Samsung’s operating profit margin in 26Q2 was only about 52%, while Hynix’s operating profit margin was 76%, far higher than Samsung’s.
╰✦ Operating profit margin rises moderately
But it’s necessary to pay attention to the modest rise in Hynix’s operating profit margin. A high operating margin means it has a larger advantage in costs relative to prices. But a smaller increase in operating margin suggests that this advantage may be weakening.
In theory, for leading companies, technological innovation may allow them to sell at higher prices or produce at a more advantageous cost, thereby achieving a higher operating profit margin.
However, as industry peers engage in technological imitation, or as the surge in demand slows down after exploding, the operating profit margin may level off.
╰✦Written at the end
First, in Hynix’s Q2, revenue increased 51% quarter-over-quarter, operating profit increased 615% quarter-over-quarter, and net profit increased 133% quarter-over-quarter, and it is still in a healthy growth trend.
Second, however, Hynix’s operating revenue exceeded the lowest expectation but did not reach the average expectation.
Third, Hynix’s EPS data far exceeded expectations. It’s possible there were some financial/adjustment techniques involved, but in any case, the EPS is likely clearly above expectations.
Fourth, compared with the previous quarter, Hynix’s operating profit margin increased by 4 percentage points, but the growth rate slowed down. This suggests that HBM technology or demand has entered a phase of steady, moderate growth.
Fifth, Hynix’s operating profit margin is still higher than Nvidia’s and Samsung’s, indicating that the benefits in the HBM and memory industry are still there—just transitioning from a breakout phase to a period of steady, modest growth.
Actually, revenue came in below expectations but EPS exceeded expectations. So when the market falls or rises, it’s sometimes not completely rational—it can involve selective interpretation.
Luckily, Hynix’s daily chart has already formed the “pullback-to-close” pattern, and it may start a rebound wave. $SKHYB
So far, Hynix has only released an earnings report summary and key information; the full earnings report has not yet been published. Later, Brother Feng will try to dig out more useful information.