The sell-off in US tech stocks this time has been really severe. I still haven't taken any action; I'm planning to wait until after the FOMC meeting ends before adjusting.
The difficulty of the “bull tail” strategy is really very high. If you just play around a little, you get punished by divine retribution.
Micron, Corning, and Hynix all caught a wave, but they didn't run.
Even though I had about 40% allocated to spot holdings with no leverage, when it falls it still hurts a bit—enough that it forced me to give back the profits I had from being short on Bitcoin.
Luckily, I already thought a bull tail would be very dangerous, so I still have around 20% in cash waiting for an entry.
Originally, I expected there would be a big drop before the election. I thought October was risky, but July used to be pretty good, so I wasn't too worried.
But now July has fallen so much—way beyond expectations—with consecutive declines. It looks like the market is very worried about the rate hike at the day after tomorrow’s FOMC.
According to the prediction market, the probability of not hiking rates is still much higher—about 73%. The US also can’t really withstand a rate hike right now.
If it gets cut down to an even more absurd level, I'll be looking to buy the dip. I'll still prioritize the semiconductor sector.
If the FOMC comes out and doesn’t hike, the market should rebound for a wave,
and then we'll see where the rebound is before deciding whether to sell.
I still also think Bitcoin will have a rebound—my view hasn’t changed.
The difficulty of the “bull tail” strategy is really very high. If you just play around a little, you get punished by divine retribution.
Micron, Corning, and Hynix all caught a wave, but they didn't run.
Even though I had about 40% allocated to spot holdings with no leverage, when it falls it still hurts a bit—enough that it forced me to give back the profits I had from being short on Bitcoin.
Luckily, I already thought a bull tail would be very dangerous, so I still have around 20% in cash waiting for an entry.
Originally, I expected there would be a big drop before the election. I thought October was risky, but July used to be pretty good, so I wasn't too worried.
But now July has fallen so much—way beyond expectations—with consecutive declines. It looks like the market is very worried about the rate hike at the day after tomorrow’s FOMC.
According to the prediction market, the probability of not hiking rates is still much higher—about 73%. The US also can’t really withstand a rate hike right now.
If it gets cut down to an even more absurd level, I'll be looking to buy the dip. I'll still prioritize the semiconductor sector.
If the FOMC comes out and doesn’t hike, the market should rebound for a wave,
and then we'll see where the rebound is before deciding whether to sell.
I still also think Bitcoin will have a rebound—my view hasn’t changed.