One word for this week: survive until Thursday.
FOMC on Wednesday, and Mag7 earnings are all scheduled for the same week. Keep positions within 30% before Tuesday. After the FOMC lands on Wednesday—if Powell is not more hawkish than expected—then consider making a small, low-position exploratory trade in tech. Survive Wednesday, and only then you’ll be qualified to make money on Thursday.
A few I’m watching:
$QQQ. The focal point of the focal point this week. FOMC plus all Mag7 earnings get thrown at it. Options implied volatility will be extremely high, so directional bets require very strong conviction. I’m more inclined to reassess after the FOMC.
$SOXX. It’s only 110 points away from confirming a bear market. The AI capex guidance from $MSFT directly decides its life or death—maintain or raise AI spending and short covering is imminent; cut the guidance, and once the bear market is confirmed, it may accelerate downward. Just waiting on one sentence from MSFT.
$XLU. One of the rare tickers where there are reasons to look at it regardless of whether the market is up or down. Defensive characteristics layered on top of AI power demand—data centers won’t stop just because the FOMC pauses. Structural demand, not emotion-driven.
$MSFT . The clearest AI monetization story among the Mag7: Copilot + Azure AI. If even its earnings fail to satisfy the market, the entire AI sector will need to be repriced.
$GLD. A surprise rate hike from the FOMC may knock it down in the short term, but the threefold floor—Middle East geopolitics, central bank gold buying, and sticky inflation—keeps it supported. When stocks crash, gold could be the fastest-moving safe-haven asset.
Control your position size. Don’t get carried away before Wednesday.
The above is personal trading notes and does not constitute any investment advice.
FOMC on Wednesday, and Mag7 earnings are all scheduled for the same week. Keep positions within 30% before Tuesday. After the FOMC lands on Wednesday—if Powell is not more hawkish than expected—then consider making a small, low-position exploratory trade in tech. Survive Wednesday, and only then you’ll be qualified to make money on Thursday.
A few I’m watching:
$QQQ. The focal point of the focal point this week. FOMC plus all Mag7 earnings get thrown at it. Options implied volatility will be extremely high, so directional bets require very strong conviction. I’m more inclined to reassess after the FOMC.
$SOXX. It’s only 110 points away from confirming a bear market. The AI capex guidance from $MSFT directly decides its life or death—maintain or raise AI spending and short covering is imminent; cut the guidance, and once the bear market is confirmed, it may accelerate downward. Just waiting on one sentence from MSFT.
$XLU. One of the rare tickers where there are reasons to look at it regardless of whether the market is up or down. Defensive characteristics layered on top of AI power demand—data centers won’t stop just because the FOMC pauses. Structural demand, not emotion-driven.
$MSFT . The clearest AI monetization story among the Mag7: Copilot + Azure AI. If even its earnings fail to satisfy the market, the entire AI sector will need to be repriced.
$GLD. A surprise rate hike from the FOMC may knock it down in the short term, but the threefold floor—Middle East geopolitics, central bank gold buying, and sticky inflation—keeps it supported. When stocks crash, gold could be the fastest-moving safe-haven asset.
Control your position size. Don’t get carried away before Wednesday.
The above is personal trading notes and does not constitute any investment advice.