Hormuz Strait talks went nowhere! How long can BTC at $64,366 stay steady?
In one sentence
Iran and Oman have made some progress in discussions about the situation in the Hormuz Strait, but the real status hasn’t changed. The short-term impact on BTC and ETH is neutral, leaning toward a wait-and-see stance.
What happened
Guys, CBS broke some news: negotiations between Iran’s Tehran and Oman’s Muscat regarding passage through the Hormuz Strait have “made progress.” But the key is the second half—“status unchanged.” In other words, nothing has changed; it’s just talk phase.
What’s interesting is that on Polymarket there’s a market betting that WTI crude will hit $110 in July. The current YES probability is only 1.9%. To be honest, those odds basically mean the market doesn’t believe the strait will be blocked.
Right now, BTC is at $64,366 (up 0.55% in 24h), and ETH is at $1,882.28 (up 1.38% in 24h). Both are in a ranging, grinding phase. Messages like “progress, but no outcome” are just noise for price action.
Market impact
Short term: That 1.9% YES probability for oil tells you everything. Funds simply don’t treat a Hormuz blockade as a real concern. BTC and ETH’s slight gains today look more like a technical bounce than anything related to this news. Basically, if there were truly a blockade risk, crude oil would have already taken off—and crypto would likely have been pulled into a risk-hedging trade as well.
Medium term: As long as the situation in the strait doesn’t turn into actual fighting, it’ll keep popping up and being “noticed” intermittently. Each time “negotiation progress” news surfaces, the market reaction grows more numb. What to truly watch out for is one day when a sudden black swan appears—then it won’t be ranging; it’ll be a waterfall drop.
My take
Honestly, I view this news as neutral. I’m not chasing longs, and I’m not hitting shorts. BTC at around $64,366 is stuck between a rock and a hard place: no upward volume follow-through, but buy-the-dip funds are propping it up from below. I lean toward watching and waiting—once BTC holds above $65K, I’d consider getting involved. If it breaks below $63K, I’d defend by reducing positions. ETH is showing slightly stronger: if $1,882.28 can hold the $1,850 support, it has more upside appeal than BTC.
🎯 2669th forecast
- Asset: BTC / ETH
- Direction: negative news 📉 forecast to fall
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
If you think the analysis is solid, give it a like so I can see how many people are still watching the screen
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
⚠️ Not investment advice
In one sentence
Iran and Oman have made some progress in discussions about the situation in the Hormuz Strait, but the real status hasn’t changed. The short-term impact on BTC and ETH is neutral, leaning toward a wait-and-see stance.
What happened
Guys, CBS broke some news: negotiations between Iran’s Tehran and Oman’s Muscat regarding passage through the Hormuz Strait have “made progress.” But the key is the second half—“status unchanged.” In other words, nothing has changed; it’s just talk phase.
What’s interesting is that on Polymarket there’s a market betting that WTI crude will hit $110 in July. The current YES probability is only 1.9%. To be honest, those odds basically mean the market doesn’t believe the strait will be blocked.
Right now, BTC is at $64,366 (up 0.55% in 24h), and ETH is at $1,882.28 (up 1.38% in 24h). Both are in a ranging, grinding phase. Messages like “progress, but no outcome” are just noise for price action.
Market impact
Short term: That 1.9% YES probability for oil tells you everything. Funds simply don’t treat a Hormuz blockade as a real concern. BTC and ETH’s slight gains today look more like a technical bounce than anything related to this news. Basically, if there were truly a blockade risk, crude oil would have already taken off—and crypto would likely have been pulled into a risk-hedging trade as well.
Medium term: As long as the situation in the strait doesn’t turn into actual fighting, it’ll keep popping up and being “noticed” intermittently. Each time “negotiation progress” news surfaces, the market reaction grows more numb. What to truly watch out for is one day when a sudden black swan appears—then it won’t be ranging; it’ll be a waterfall drop.
My take
Honestly, I view this news as neutral. I’m not chasing longs, and I’m not hitting shorts. BTC at around $64,366 is stuck between a rock and a hard place: no upward volume follow-through, but buy-the-dip funds are propping it up from below. I lean toward watching and waiting—once BTC holds above $65K, I’d consider getting involved. If it breaks below $63K, I’d defend by reducing positions. ETH is showing slightly stronger: if $1,882.28 can hold the $1,850 support, it has more upside appeal than BTC.
🎯 2669th forecast
- Asset: BTC / ETH
- Direction: negative news 📉 forecast to fall
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
If you think the analysis is solid, give it a like so I can see how many people are still watching the screen
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
⚠️ Not investment advice