End of the monthly trend: the Fed’s interest rate decision, and the key points in Worsh’s comments on currency!
The daily trend is basically unchanged. The market has priced in a sharp rise in the probability that the Fed will hike rates at next week’s July 29 meeting. U.S. Treasury yields surged to the highest level this year, the U.S. dollar index hit a three-week high, and Bitcoin’s daily gains need to start narrowing. Ethereum briefly broke below 1900, and in the short term the momentum of intraday rebounds continues—forming a key situation.
The current structure at the daily timeframe has ended a run of consecutive rebounds. The 65,000 zone has shifted from support to minor resistance. On the 4-hour timeframe, the MACD formed a bearish crossover, and short-term bearish momentum has started to release. Retracing back to the 64,000 support area—which is the zone of previous heavy trading volume—is the core line that determines the strength/weakness of this pullback.
Looking back at the BTC–ETH trend from last night’s livestream: the bottom pullback did not show any obvious signs of volume probing. As to whether this leg of bulls can once again put forth extreme signals, first we need to watch how resistance overhead at 65,800 responds with volume. If by Friday it cannot produce a definite corrective bounce, then intraday structure will still remain range-bound. The intraday minor-lower low support at 64,600 cannot be treated as a belief for holding shorts. The intraday weakness followed by stronger performance after hours in recent days has been more than clear.
For longs around the 65,000 area today: reduce/exit in batches at 65,500–65,800, the levels given in last night’s livestream on the rebound. Structurally, this is about selling high and buying low: on the small cycles, bulls and bears wrestle to build up energy and choose direction. Ahead of trading, if shorts push down around 64,800, look to buy. On the rebound, target 65,800–66,300. Ethereum follows the same plan intraday…$BTC
The daily trend is basically unchanged. The market has priced in a sharp rise in the probability that the Fed will hike rates at next week’s July 29 meeting. U.S. Treasury yields surged to the highest level this year, the U.S. dollar index hit a three-week high, and Bitcoin’s daily gains need to start narrowing. Ethereum briefly broke below 1900, and in the short term the momentum of intraday rebounds continues—forming a key situation.
The current structure at the daily timeframe has ended a run of consecutive rebounds. The 65,000 zone has shifted from support to minor resistance. On the 4-hour timeframe, the MACD formed a bearish crossover, and short-term bearish momentum has started to release. Retracing back to the 64,000 support area—which is the zone of previous heavy trading volume—is the core line that determines the strength/weakness of this pullback.
Looking back at the BTC–ETH trend from last night’s livestream: the bottom pullback did not show any obvious signs of volume probing. As to whether this leg of bulls can once again put forth extreme signals, first we need to watch how resistance overhead at 65,800 responds with volume. If by Friday it cannot produce a definite corrective bounce, then intraday structure will still remain range-bound. The intraday minor-lower low support at 64,600 cannot be treated as a belief for holding shorts. The intraday weakness followed by stronger performance after hours in recent days has been more than clear.
For longs around the 65,000 area today: reduce/exit in batches at 65,500–65,800, the levels given in last night’s livestream on the rebound. Structurally, this is about selling high and buying low: on the small cycles, bulls and bears wrestle to build up energy and choose direction. Ahead of trading, if shorts push down around 64,800, look to buy. On the rebound, target 65,800–66,300. Ethereum follows the same plan intraday…$BTC