July 24, 2026

I wonder if everyone has noticed that lately the market has shown some unusual fluctuations. There has been a lot of activity where many copycat coins start blindly pumping. Basically, they achieve several-fold gains within just a few days or weeks. In the current bear market, this abnormal signal is definitely something we cannot ignore—the information behind it is worth interpreting. If we assume a four-year cycle, right now we are at the very bottom of the overall bear market. Because liquidity and the depth of buy and sell orders are both extremely poor, when someone pushes prices to surge and crash violently at this time, we can interpret it as increasing volatility and further raising turnover.

By increasing volatility, the purpose is to accumulate positions. It’s basically the last dance of every major player’s position-accumulation cycle when they enter the final stage. In other words, this is an action that must be carried out. For Bitcoin, the same applies: whether it’s a pin-dip crash or a quick pump followed by a pullback, the goal is the same—to awaken the selling pressure of retail investors. For trapped holders’ chips that are stuck at high levels, once they enter a “playing dead” phase, they must be pulled back into the market through short-term violent surges and crashes. Of course, it’s impossible that all trapped chips will be sold, but if the chips don’t move, then during the later rally in the bull market, they’re even less likely to be sold easily. In this way, the purpose of shaking out the market is already achieved.

My view is pretty clear: the next three months are the best window for bargain hunting. But given the current external environment, there’s a fairly high chance that we’ll see one last drop as well. The biggest grey rhino right now is the sustained high oil prices. Even though the market seems no longer to care about the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, and—who knows—it might get discussed today and be contradicted tomorrow, the fact is that oil supply is constrained. That will eventually feed into end-market pricing, and high inflation is unavoidable. At that point, it’s likely that monetary tightening will be used to curb it. In that scenario, under liquidity pressure, risk assets may very well experience downward “pin” moves.

My current strategy is to start by using part of my holdings to increase dollar-cost averaging. In terms of a grid strategy, essentially I only keep the long grid; I take part of the profits directly to buy more, and I also prepare for what could be the final drop. Based on previous market estimates: if Bitcoin’s price breaks below 50,000 and goes to below 45,000, that would basically be the lowest point of this round. However, this is really just a blind guess—whether it will reach that level, and where the price will stop, no one knows. Still, I want to emphasize that strategically, the next three months are the best opportunity. Of course, the risk with altcoins is that the main players may have already abandoned them, so allocations to mainstream assets like Bitcoin should take up the majority—an even overwhelming majority.

Thanks for your attention and likes.